Usable Science? The U.K. Climate Projections 2009 and Decision Support for Adaptation Planning
Usable Science? The U.K. Climate Projections 2009 and Decision Support for Adaptation Planning
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可用的科学？
DOI：
10.1175/wcas-d-12-00028.1
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
S. Dessai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Samuel Tang;S. Dessai
随着未来气候变化的不可避免，适应性规划成为政策的优先事项。适应性规划的一个核心要素是科学专业知识和对未来气候可能保持的认识。英国气候预测2009（UKCP09）提供了气候信息，旨在帮助那些需要计划如何适应气候变化的人。本文试图确定如何有用和可用UKCP09是适应决策。该研究采用了一种混合方法，包括对适应报告的分析、定量调查以及与科学政策界面中的关键适应利益攸关方的半结构化访谈，其中包括决策者、知识生产者和知识翻译者。知识体系标准用于评估UKCP09对每个利益相关者群体的可信度、合法性和显著性。利益相关者认为UKCP09是可信和合法的，因为它的复杂性，资金来源，以及参与UKCP09发展的组织的科学声誉。然而，由于决策的内在复杂性和用户的潜在更大的多样性，UKCP09的显着性被认为是依赖于科学能力和熟悉的用户（S）在处理气候信息。这方面的一个例子是使用贝叶斯概率预测，这提高了UKCP09科学的可信度和合法性，但降低了决策的显着性。这项研究提出了一个问题，即是否需要对气候预测进行调整，以提高其在决策中的重要性，同时认识到，在产生可用的科学知识时，很难平衡这三个知识标准。
Withfuturechangesinclimatebeinginevitable,adaptationplanninghasbecomeapolicypriority.Acentral element in adaptationplanning is scientific expertiseand knowledge of what the future climate may hold. The U.K.ClimateProjections2009(UKCP09)provideclimateinformationdesignedtohelpthoseneedingtoplan how to adapt to a changing climate. This paper attempts to determine how useful and usable UKCP09 is for adaptation decision making. The study used a mixed-methods approach that includes analysis of adaptation reports, a quantitative survey, and semistructured interviews with key adaptation stakeholders working in the science‐policy interface, which included decision makers, knowledge producers, and knowledge translators. The knowledge system criteria were used to assess the credibility, legitimacy, and saliency of UKCP09 for each stakeholder group. It emerged that stakeholders perceived UKCP09 to be credible and legitimate becauseofitssophistication,fundingsource,andthescientificreputationoforganizationsinvolvedinUKCP09’s development. However, because of the inherent complexities of decision making and a potentially greater diversity in users, UKCP09’s saliency was found to be dependent upon the scientific competence and familiarity of the user(s) in dealing with climate information. An example of this was the use of Bayesian probabilistic projections, which improved the credibility and legitimacy of UKCP09’s science but reduced the saliency for decision making. This research raises the question of whether the tailoring of climate projections is needed to enhance their salience for decision making, while recognizing that it is difficult to balance the three knowledge criteria in the production of usable science.
影响因子：
1.7
作者：
A. Mylona
通讯作者：
A. Mylona