Nonlinear growth and mathematical modelling of COVID-19 in some African countries with the Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative.
Nonlinear growth and mathematical modelling of COVID-19 in some African countries with the Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.cnsns.2021.106076
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发表时间：
2022-03
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
McClintock PVE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kolebaje OT;Vincent OR;Vincent UE;McClintock PVE
我们分析了一些非洲国家新型冠状病毒COVID-19确诊病例累计数的时间序列演变。我们提出了一个数学模型，结合非药物干预措施来解开疾病传播动态。对模型的稳态稳定性进行了分析，并通过下一代矩阵技术获得了再生数，这是平坦化COVID-19病例时间演变的关键。通过将累计确诊感染病例数的大流行时间演变划分为不同的阶段或区间（下文称为阶段），进行了数值模拟，以将建议模型拟合为COVID-19第一波期间不同阶段的累计确诊感染人数。估计值从感染第一阶段的2.452-9.179下降到最后阶段的1.374-2.417。使用Atangana-Baleanu分数阶导数，提出了一个分数COVID-19模型，并进行了数值模拟，以建立疾病动力学对分数阶导数阶数的依赖性。进行了弹性和敏感性分析，以确定最重要的参数，以打击疾病的爆发。这些指标是有效疾病传播率、疾病诊断或病例发现率、采取预防措施的易感个体比例和疾病感染率。我们的研究结果表明，如果疾病感染率小于0.082/天，那么它总是小于1;如果至少55.29%的易感人群采取预防措施，如定期用肥皂洗手，使用消毒剂，戴口罩，那么无论疾病感染率如何，生殖数量都保持在1以下。将数值保持在1以下会导致COVID-19患病率下降。
We analyse the time-series evolution of the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, the novel coronavirus disease, for some African countries. We propose a mathematical model, incorporating non-pharmaceutical interventions to unravel the disease transmission dynamics. Analysis of the stability of the model’s steady states was carried out, and the reproduction number , a vital key for flattening the time-evolution of COVID-19 cases, was obtained by means of the next generation matrix technique. By dividing the time evolution of the pandemic for the cumulative number of confirmed infected cases into different regimes or intervals, hereafter referred to as phases, numerical simulations were performed to fit the proposed model to the cumulative number of confirmed infections for different phases of COVID-19 during its first wave. The estimated declined from 2.452–9.179 during the first phase of the infection to 1.374–2.417 in the last phase. Using the Atangana–Baleanu fractional derivative, a fractional COVID-19 model is proposed and numerical simulations performed to establish the dependence of the disease dynamics on the order of the fractional derivatives. An elasticity and sensitivity analysis of was carried out to determine the most significant parameters for combating the disease outbreak. These were found to be the effective disease transmission rate, the disease diagnosis or case detection rate, the proportion of susceptible individuals taking precautions, and the disease infection rate. Our results show that if the disease infection rate is less than 0.082/day, then is always less than 1; and if at least 55.29% of the susceptible population take precautions such as regular hand washing with soap, use of sanitizers, and the wearing of face masks, then the reproduction number remains below unity irrespective of the disease infection rate. Keeping values below unity leads to a decrease in COVID-19 prevalence.
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影响因子：
15.8
作者：
Cummings DA;Iamsirithaworn S;Lessler JT;McDermott A;Prasanthong R;Nisalak A;Jarman RG;Burke DS;Gibbons RV
通讯作者：
Gibbons RV
影响因子：
1.7
作者：
Atangana, Abdon;Baleanu, Dumitru
通讯作者：
Baleanu, Dumitru
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Ceylan, Zeynep
通讯作者：
Ceylan, Zeynep
影响因子：
7.8
作者：
Alzahrani, E. O.;Khan, M. A.
通讯作者：
Khan, M. A.
影响因子：
6.8
作者：
Coronel-Escamilla, A.;Lavin-Delgado, J. E.;Torres, L.
通讯作者：
Torres, L.