Extrapolating potential crop damage by insect pests based on land use data: examining inter-regional generality in agricultural landscapes.
Extrapolating potential crop damage by insect pests based on land use data: examining inter-regional generality in agricultural landscapes.
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基于土地利用数据的虫害对作物潜在损害的外推：农业景观中区域间一般性的检验。
DOI：
10.1186/s12862-022-02024-7
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发表时间：
2022-05-25
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
在自然条件下，景观要素与生物反应之间的区域间关系是重要的，但由于不同的景观背景和当地环境的不同，很难预测。为了检验与景观因素相关的区域间变异性和水稻病虫害的生物反应，我们利用土地利用数据外推了水稻为害预测模型(我们先前研究的原始模型)。“原始模型”包括300米半径内的源生境(即牧场和以禾本科植物为主的休耕地)、大豆田和稻田的面积作为固定因素，研究年限作为随机截距。我们假设原始模型将适用于新的区域，但预测精度将会降低。我们预测，拟合一个新的扩展模型，调整“原始模型”中相同固定因子的参数系数，并增加区域随机截距，将改善模型的性能(“扩展模型”)。一项实地试验在两个与原始地区有相似景观背景的地区进行，每个地区在总共四年的不同年份进行。调查了300米半径范围内水稻受灾和周边土地利用的比例，并将数据应用到模型中，检验了模型的适用性和准确性。当“原始模型”被分配给来自原始区域和外推区域的组合数据时，观测值和预测值之间的关系在统计上是显著的，这表明存在区域间的共同关系。如果该模型仅适用于新的地区，那么这种关系在统计上并不显著。三次交叉验证表明，扩展模型的精度比原始模型提高了14%，适用于研究区域内的未知数据。这些结果表明，在这个害虫-作物系统中，尽管我们需要考虑当地的环境因素，但由于景观因素，节肢动物很可能存在共同的跨区域生物反应。我们应该能够通过提供区域范围的管理选择来应用这种关系来识别或预防虫害危害。网上版载有补充材料，可在10.1186/s12862-022-02024-7查阅。
Inter-regional relationships between landscape factors and biological responses in natural conditions are important but difficult to predict because of the differences in each landscape context and local environment. To examine the inter-regional variability in relation to landscape factors and the biological response of an insect pest of rice, Stenotus rubrovittatus, we extrapolated a damage prediction model (the ‘original model’ of our previous study) for rice using land-use data. The ‘original model’ comprised as fixed factors the area of source habitat (i.e. pastures and graminoid-dominated fallow fields), soybean fields, and rice paddies within 300-m radii with research years as the random intercept. We hypothesized that the original model would be applicable to new regions, but the predictive accuracy would be reduced. We predicted that fitting a new extended model, adjusting the parameter coefficients of identical fixed factors of the ‘original model,’ and adding regional random intercepts would improve model performance (the ‘extended model’). A field experiment was conducted in two regions that had a similar landscape context with the original region, each in a different year of four years in total. The proportion of rice damage and surrounding land use within a 300-m radius was investigated, and the data were applied to the models and the applicability and accuracy of the models were examined. When the ‘original model’ was assigned to the combined data from the original and extrapolated regions, the relationship between the observed and the predicted values was statistically significant, suggesting that there was an inter-regional common relationship. The relationship was not statistically significant if the model was applied only to the new regions. The extended model accuracy improved by 14% compared with the original model and was applicable for unknown data within the examined regions as demonstrated by three-fold cross validation. These results imply that in this pest–crop system, there is likely to be a common inter-regional biological response of arthropods because of landscape factors, although we need to consider local environmental factors. We should be able to apply such relationships to identify or prevent pest hazards by offering region-wide management options. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-022-02024-7.
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影响因子：
5
作者：
Gardiner, M. M.;Landis, D. A.;Heimpel, G. E.
通讯作者：
Heimpel, G. E.
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Giovanelli, Joao G. R.;Haddad, Celio F. B.;Alexandrino, Joao
通讯作者：
Alexandrino, Joao
影响因子：
10.1
作者：
Luo, Y;Su, B;Field, CB
通讯作者：
Field, CB
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Miguet, Paul;Jackson, Heather B.;Fahrig, Lenore
通讯作者：
Fahrig, Lenore
影响因子：
1.6
作者：
Kondoh, Hiroshi;Yamanaka, Takehiko;Makino, Shun'ichi
通讯作者：
Makino, Shun'ichi