Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific
Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific
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BCC_CSM 预测东亚和西北太平洋夏季降水能力的局限性
DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.04.016
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发表时间：
2017-09
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Qiao Shaobo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gong Zhiqiang;Dogar M;Qiao Shaobo
本文研究了北京气候中心气候系统模式（BCC_CSM）对东亚-西北太平洋（EA-NWP）夏季降水的纬向型及其东亚-太平洋（EAP）遥相关的预报能力。分析了经验正交函数的夏季降水模态的差异和东亚数值预报模式的大气环流偏差，以确定降水预报误差的原因。结果表明，BCC_CSM不能再现与过去20年观测到的显著不同的由南向北的正-负-正纬向三极型。这种失败可以归因于夏季EAP遥相关的BCC_CSM后报的偏差和EAP中高纬叶500 hPa的低可预报性。同时，BCC_CSM对印度尼西亚海洋大陆（IMC）海温异常的大气响应不足，导致500 hPa的位势异常和850 hPa的风场、涡度异常出现相反的、地理位置偏移的异常，使BCC_CSM不能正确地再现EAP遥相关型。了解这两个问题将有助于进一步提高BCC_CSM对东亚数值预报模式的夏季降水预报能力。
This study examines the ability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) to predict the meridional pattern of summer precipitation over East Asia-Northwest Pacific (EA-NWP) and its East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection. The differences of summer precipitation modes of the empirical orthogonal function and the bias of atmospheric circulations over EA-NWP are analyzed to determine the reason for the precipitation prediction errors. Results indicate that the BCC_CSM could not reproduce the positive-negative-positive meridional tripole pattern from south to north that differs markedly from that observed over the last 20 years. This failure can be attributed to the bias of the BCC_CSM hindcasts of the summer EAP teleconnection and the low predictability of 500 hPa at the mid-high latitude lobe of the EAP. Meanwhile, the BCC_CSM hindcasts' deficiencies of atmospheric responses to SST anomalies over the Indonesia maritime continent (IMC) resulted in opposite and geographically shifted geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa as well as wind and vorticity anomalies at 850 hPa, rendering the BCC_CSM unable to correctly reproduce the EAP teleconnection pattern. Understanding these two problems will help further improve BCC_CSM's summer precipitation forecasting ability over EA-NWP.
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影响因子：
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作者：
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DOI：
10.1080/00401706.1996.10484553
发表时间：
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期刊：
--
影响因子：
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