A cure for the plague of parameters: constraining models of complex population dynamics with allometries.
A cure for the plague of parameters: constraining models of complex population dynamics with allometries.
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2013.1901
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发表时间：
2013-11-07
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Reuman DC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hudson LN;Reuman DC
生态学的一个主要目标是发现多营养生态群落的动态和结构之间的关系。这很困难，因为整个社区的数据是有限的，通常只包括社区的快照，而不是动态的时间序列，而且复杂系统动力学的数学模型有大量未测量的参数，因此与真实系统只有很小的联系。这些都是相关的问题，因为长时间序列如果普遍可用，将使参数推断成为可能。由此产生的“参数瘟疫”意味着对多物种种群动力学的大多数研究都是非常理论化的。使用生理异速生长的动力学模型可以部分治愈参数的困扰，这些模型在理论研究中得到了越来越多的应用。然而，生理异速生长并不能确定所有的参数，而且这些模型也很少被直接根据数据进行测试。我们用一个湖泊群落的数据与群落动力学模型进行了对峙。许多重要的经验模式作为动力学的结果是可重现的，而当参数不符合生理异速生长时，则不可重现。结果验证了当参数遵循生理异速生长时，经典的微分方程式模型对于理解整个群落动态和结构-动力学关系的有效性。
A major goal of ecology is to discover how dynamics and structure of multi-trophic ecological communities are related. This is difficult, because whole-community data are limited and typically comprise only a snapshot of a community instead of a time series of dynamics, and mathematical models of complex system dynamics have a large number of unmeasured parameters and therefore have been only tenuously related to real systems. These are related problems, because long time-series, if they were commonly available, would enable inference of parameters. The resulting ‘plague of parameters’ means most studies of multi-species population dynamics have been very theoretical. Dynamical models parametrized using physiological allometries may offer a partial cure for the plague of parameters, and these models are increasingly used in theoretical studies. However, physiological allometries cannot determine all parameters, and the models have also rarely been directly tested against data. We confronted a model of community dynamics with data from a lake community. Many important empirical patterns were reproducible as outcomes of dynamics, and were not reproducible when parameters did not follow physiological allometries. Results validate the usefulness, when parameters follow physiological allometries, of classic differential-equation models for understanding whole-community dynamics and the structure–dynamics relationship.
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1204337
发表时间：
2011-07-22
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Hechinger RF;Lafferty KD;Dobson AP;Brown JH;Kuris AM
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影响因子：
56.9
作者：
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影响因子：
56.9
作者：
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Clark, James S.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0806823106
发表时间：
2009-01-06
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Berlow, Eric L.;Dunne, Jennifer A.;Brose, Ulrich
通讯作者：
Brose, Ulrich
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
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