Disease ecology, biodiversity, and the latitudinal gradient in income.
Disease ecology, biodiversity, and the latitudinal gradient in income.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pbio.1001456
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Keenan DC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bonds MH;Dobson AP;Keenan DC
病媒和寄生虫病是收入纬度梯度的驱动因素，随着生物多样性福尔斯的减少，这些疾病的负担预计会增加。虽然世界上大多数地区被认为处于长期经济增长的道路上，但世界上超过六分之一的人今天与数百年前的祖先一样贫穷。大多数极端贫困人口生活在热带地区。收入的纬度梯度高度暗示了潜在的生物物理驱动因素，其中疾病状况是一个特别突出的例子。然而，收入和疾病之间同时存在的因果关系以及潜在的虚假关系混淆了结论。我们使用一个联立方程模型来估计病媒传播和寄生虫病（VBPD）和收入对彼此的相对影响，控制其他因素。我们的统计模型表明，VBPD系统地影响了经济发展，这在当代人均收入水平上很明显。而维生素BDP的负担又取决于基本的生态条件。特别是，该模型预测它会随着生物多样性的福尔斯而上升。通过这些对人类健康的积极影响，该模型确定了生物多样性的可衡量的经济效益。虽然世界上大多数国家的经济都在增长，但今天世界上超过六分之一的人与数百年前的祖先一样贫穷。极端贫困人口主要生活在热带地区。这种收入的纬度梯度表明，有生物物理因素，如疾病负担，推动了这种影响。然而，衡量疾病对广泛经济指标的影响，由于经济指标同时影响健康，因而受到混淆。我们通过使用联立方程模型来估计疾病和收入对彼此的相对影响，同时控制其他因素来解决这个问题。我们的模型表明，媒介传播和寄生虫病（VBPDs）系统地影响了经济发展。重要的是，我们表明，VBPDs的负担，反过来，由潜在的生态条件。特别是，该模型预测，随着生物多样性福尔斯的下降，疾病负担将上升。因此，生物多样性的健康惠益有可能构成一种生态系统服务，可以用产生的收入来量化。
Vector-borne and parasitic diseases are drivers of the latitudinal gradient in income, and the burden of these diseases is predicted to rise as biodiversity falls. While most of the world is thought to be on long-term economic growth paths, more than one-sixth of the world is roughly as poor today as their ancestors were hundreds of years ago. The majority of the extremely poor live in the tropics. The latitudinal gradient in income is highly suggestive of underlying biophysical drivers, of which disease conditions are an especially salient example. However, conclusions have been confounded by the simultaneous causality between income and disease, in addition to potentially spurious relationships. We use a simultaneous equations model to estimate the relative effects of vector-borne and parasitic diseases (VBPDs) and income on each other, controlling for other factors. Our statistical model indicates that VBPDs have systematically affected economic development, evident in contemporary levels of per capita income. The burden of VBDPs is, in turn, determined by underlying ecological conditions. In particular, the model predicts it to rise as biodiversity falls. Through these positive effects on human health, the model thus identifies measurable economic benefits of biodiversity. While most of the world is thought to be growing economically, more than one-sixth of the world is roughly as poor today as their ancestors were hundreds of years ago. The extremely poor live largely in the tropics. This latitudinal gradient in income suggests that there are biophysical factors, such as the burden of disease, driving the effect. However, measuring the effects of disease on broad economic indicators is confounded by the fact that economic indicators simultaneously influence health. We get around this by using simultaneous equation modeling to estimate the relative effects of disease and income on each other while controlling for other factors. Our model indicates that vector-borne and parasitic diseases (VBPDs) have systematically affected economic development. Importantly, we show that the burden of VBPDs is, in turn, determined by underlying ecological conditions. In particular, the model predicts that the burden of disease will rise as biodiversity falls. The health benefits of biodiversity, therefore, potentially constitute an ecosystem service that can be quantified in terms of income generated.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1011521108
发表时间：
2011-08-23
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Barrett, Christopher B.;Travis, Alexander J.;Dasgupta, Partha
通讯作者：
Dasgupta, Partha
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2009.1778
发表时间：
2010-04-22
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
Bonds, Matthew H.;Keenan, Donald C.;Sachs, Jeffrey D.
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Sachs, Jeffrey D.
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Bonds, Matthew H.
通讯作者：
Bonds, Matthew H.
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Dasgupta, P
通讯作者：
Dasgupta, P
影响因子：
8.4
作者：
Angrist, JD;Krueger, AB
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Krueger, AB