Modelling the impact of climate change on the distribution and abundance of tsetse in Northern Zimbabwe.
Modelling the impact of climate change on the distribution and abundance of tsetse in Northern Zimbabwe.
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DOI：
10.1186/s13071-020-04398-3
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发表时间：
2020-10-19
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Lord JS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Longbottom J;Caminade C;Gibson HS;Weiss DJ;Torr S;Lord JS
据预测，气候变化将影响媒介传播疾病的传播动态。采采蝇(Glossina)传播各种锥虫，导致人和动物非洲锥虫病。之前的一项模拟研究表明，1990至2017年间气温的上升可以解释津巴布韦玛纳池国家公园单一地点采采树丰度下降的原因。在这里，我们应用采采蝇种群动态的机械模型来预测气温上升可能如何改变津巴布韦北部苍蝇的分布和相对丰度。当地气象站的温度测量以前是用来将机理模型与纵向苍白粉虱的捕获数据进行拟合。为了扩展模型的使用范围，我们将MODIS的地表温度转换为气温，将转换后的温度与现有的气象站数据进行比较，以确认它们是一致的，然后使用棉铃虫的捕获数据和气温估计值重新拟合机理模型。我们使用2000至2016年间1公里×1公里空间分辨率的模拟，在津巴布韦北部投射了这个拟合的模型。我们对津巴布韦北部苍白粉虱死亡率、幼虫数量、羽化率和丰度的相对变化进行了估计。我们的模型预测，在2000-2016年间，随着气温上升的趋势，低海拔地区的采采树种群将减少。相反，我们发现高海拔地区(海拔1000米)，以前被认为太冷而不能持续采采雪，现在可能适合气候。据我们所知，这项研究的结果是对与温度有关的采采赛种群动态的第一次区域规模评估，也是对津巴布韦北部这一指标的第一次高空间分辨率估计。我们的结果表明，在研究期间，由于气候条件的变化，赞比西河谷大部分地区的采采棉丰度可能已经下降。计划进行未来的研究，包括实证研究，以提高模型的准确性，并验证对津巴布韦其他实地地点的预测。
Climate change is predicted to impact the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Tsetse flies (Glossina) transmit species of Trypanosoma that cause human and animal African trypanosomiasis. A previous modelling study showed that temperature increases between 1990 and 2017 can explain the observed decline in abundance of tsetse at a single site in the Mana Pools National Park of Zimbabwe. Here, we apply a mechanistic model of tsetse population dynamics to predict how increases in temperature may have changed the distribution and relative abundance of Glossina pallidipes across northern Zimbabwe. Local weather station temperature measurements were previously used to fit the mechanistic model to longitudinal G. pallidipes catch data. To extend the use of the model, we converted MODIS land surface temperature to air temperature, compared the converted temperatures with available weather station data to confirm they aligned, and then re-fitted the mechanistic model using G. pallidipes catch data and air temperature estimates. We projected this fitted model across northern Zimbabwe, using simulations at a 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution, between 2000 to 2016. We produced estimates of relative changes in G. pallidipes mortality, larviposition, emergence rates and abundance, for northern Zimbabwe. Our model predicts decreasing tsetse populations within low elevation areas in response to increasing temperature trends during 2000–2016. Conversely, we show that high elevation areas (> 1000 m above sea level), previously considered too cold to sustain tsetse, may now be climatically suitable. To our knowledge, the results of this research represent the first regional-scale assessment of temperature related tsetse population dynamics, and the first high spatial-resolution estimates of this metric for northern Zimbabwe. Our results suggest that tsetse abundance may have declined across much of the Zambezi Valley in response to changing climatic conditions during the study period. Future research including empirical studies is planned to improve model accuracy and validate predictions for other field sites in Zimbabwe.
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影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Aksoy S;Buscher P;Lehane M;Solano P;Van Den Abbeele J
通讯作者：
Van Den Abbeele J
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Lehane M;Alfaroukh I;Bucheton B;Camara M;Harris A;Kaba D;Lumbala C;Peka M;Rayaisse JB;Waiswa C;Solano P;Torr S
通讯作者：
Torr S
影响因子：
1.5
作者：
HARGROVE, JW
通讯作者：
HARGROVE, JW
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
FORSYTHE, WC;RYKIEL, EJ;SCHOOLFIELD, RM
通讯作者：
SCHOOLFIELD, RM
影响因子：
5.7
作者：
JARMAN, PJ
通讯作者：
JARMAN, PJ