Combining Statistical, Physical, and Historical Evidence to Improve Historical Sea-Surface Temperature Records
Combining Statistical, Physical, and Historical Evidence to Improve Historical Sea-Surface Temperature Records
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结合统计、物理和历史证据来改善历史海面温度记录
DOI：
10.1162/99608f92.edcee38f
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Duo Chan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Duo Chan
从历史测量数据中重建过去的海面温度（SSTs），这些测量数据包含来自150多个国家的50多万艘船舶使用各种方法进行的1亿多次船舶观测，这带来了广泛的历史、科学和统计挑战。重建历史海温以研究气候变化尤其具有挑战性，因为海温测量是不确定的，并且包含0.1°C到1°C的系统偏差，这些系统偏差在大约1°C的历史全球变暖信号范围内。偏差是复杂的，通常使用简化的修正来解决。在这篇综述中，我介绍了海温观测的历史，回顾了用于量化海温偏差的统计方法，并说明了从调整海温中获得的科学见解。这篇文章也记录了我博士工作的科学之旅。因此，我报告了个人的成功、困难和挫折的故事。校正海温的统计方法（即线性混合效应相互比较框架）依赖于确定可比较的海温观测组之间的系统偏移。将估算的抵消量与物理和历史证据相结合，可以纠正与海温有关的差异，包括北大西洋在20世纪初的变暖速度是北太平洋的两倍，以及第二次世界大战期间海温异常变暖。修正也允许更好地预报大西洋飓风。最后，我讨论了如何进一步改进海温记录。鉴于海温对了解历史气候变化的重要性，我希望这篇综述可以帮助其他人认识到当前的挑战，并激发一些进一步改进的兴趣和想法。
Reconstructing past sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) from historical measurements containing more than 100 million ship-based observations taken by over 500,000 ships from more than 150 countries using a variety of methodologies creates a wide range of historical, scientific, and statistical challenges. The reconstruction of historical SSTs for studying climate change is particularly challenging because SST measurements are uncertain and contain systematic biases of order 0.1◦C to 1◦C—these systematic biases are in the range of the historical global warming signal of approximately 1◦C. The biases are complicated and have generally been addressed using simplified corrections. In this review, I introduce a history of SST observations, review a statistical method developed for quantifying SST biases, and illustrate scientific insights obtained from adjusted SSTs. This article also documents the scientific journey of my Ph.D. work. As a result, I report personal stories on both successes, difficulties, and setbacks along the way. The statistical method for correcting SSTs (i.e., a linear-mixed-effect intercomparison framework) depends on identifying systematic offsets between intercomparable groups of SST obser-vations. Combining estimated offsets with physical and historical evidence has allowed for correcting discrepancies associated with SSTs, including the North Atlantic warming twice as fast as the North Pacific in the early twentieth century and anomalously warm SSTs during World War II. Corrections also permit better hindcasting of Atlantic hurricanes. I conclude with some discussion on how the SST records might be further improved. Given the importance of SSTs for understanding historical changes in climate, I hope that this review can help others appreciate challenges that are present and spark some interest and ideas for further improvement.
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影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Pfeiffer M;Zinke J;Dullo WC;Garbe-Schönberg D;Latif M;Weber ME
通讯作者：
Weber ME
DOI：
10.1002/joc.4775
发表时间：
2017-04-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Freeman, Eric;Woodruff, Scott D.;Smith, Shawn R.
通讯作者：
Smith, Shawn R.
ICOADS 中船舶航程重建的概率方法
DOI：
10.1002/joc.4492
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
International Journal of Climatology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Carella G
通讯作者：
Carella G
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Chan, Duo;Kent, Elizabeth C.;Huybers, Peter
通讯作者：
Huybers, Peter
影响因子：
8
作者：
Kent, Elizabeth C.;Kennedy, John J.;Zhang, Huai-Min
通讯作者：
Zhang, Huai-Min