The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions
The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions
复制标题
宏观经济不确定性对企业决策的影响
DOI：
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复制
发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Olivier Coibion
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Saten Kumar;Y. Gorodnichenko;Olivier Coibion
通过对新西兰企业的一项新调查，我们记录了企业感知到的宏观经济不确定性的外生变化如何影响其经济决策。我们使用随机信息处理来提供有关未来经济增长的第一和/或第二时刻的不同类型的信息，以产生一些企业感知的宏观经济不确定性的外生变化。六个月后的跟踪调查衡量了他们的决定相对于最初计划以及相对于未经治疗的对照组的影响。我们发现，随着企业变得更加不确定，它们会降低价格、就业和投资，销售额下降，并且投资新技术或开设新设施的可能性也降低。这些不确定性的事后影响类似于企业在被问到假设性问题时表示他们将如何应对更高的不确定性。
Using a new survey of firms in New Zealand, we document how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by firms affects their economic decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of future economic growth to generate exogenous changes in the perceived macroeconomic uncertainty of some firms. The effects on their decisions relative to their initial plans as well as relative to an untreated control group are measured in a follow‐up survey six months later. We find that as firms become more uncertain, they reduce their prices, employment, and investment, their sales decline, and they become less likely to invest in new technologies or open new facilities. These ex post effects of uncertainty are similar to how firms say they would respond to higher uncertainty when asked hypothetical questions.
英国脱欧对英国企业的影响
DOI：
10.3386/w26218
发表时间：
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期刊：
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影响因子：
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作者：
Bloom N
通讯作者：
Bloom N
影响因子：
8.2
作者：
Coibion, Olivier;Gorodnichenko, Yuriy;Weber, Michael
通讯作者：
Weber, Michael