Probabilistic characterization of seismic ground deformation due to tectonic fault movements

Probabilistic characterization of seismic ground deformation due to tectonic fault movements
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构造断层运动引起的地震地面变形的概率表征

DOI:
10.1016/j.soildyn.2017.05.039
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发表时间:
2017
影响因子:
4
通讯作者:
Goda K
Goda K
中科院分区:
工程技术2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Goda K

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近断层区域的大地构造变形对建筑物和基础设施造成重大破坏。为了表征地面变形对结构的要求,一种新的随机方法来评估地面变形的构造起源相结合的震源参数的概率模型,合成地震滑动模型,和冈田方程计算由于断层运动的变形场。该方法的输出是在一个单一的位置或两个位置之间的差异地面变形的地面变形的概率分布。导出的概率模型可以作为输入先进的结构模型和分析。针对2016年4月16日日本熊本地震说明了该方法。通过比较模拟的地面变形与观测变形在多个站点,一组细化的源模型,首先推导出,然后使用调查的详细地震事件的特征和开发的概率分布的构造地面变形在目标网站。
Tectonic ground deformations in the near-fault region cause major damage to buildings and infrastructure. To characterize ground deformation demands on structures, a novel stochastic approach to evaluate the ground deformations of tectonic origin is developed by combining probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters, synthetic earthquake slip models, and Okada equations for calculating the deformation field due to a fault movement. The output of the method is the probability distribution of ground deformations at a single location or differential ground deformations between two locations. The derived probabilistic models can be employed as input to advanced structural models and analyses. The method is illustrated for the 16 April 2016 Kumamoto earthquake in Japan. By comparing simulated ground deformations with observed deformations at multiple sites, a set of refined source models is first derived and then used to investigate the detailed earthquake characteristics of the event and to develop probability distributions of tectonic ground deformations at target sites.
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