The impact of hypocrisy on opinion formation: A dynamic model
The impact of hypocrisy on opinion formation: A dynamic model
复制标题
虚伪对舆论形成的影响：动态模型
作者：
Michael T. Gastner;K. Takács;Máté Gulyás;Z. Szvetelszky;B. Oborny
人类有一种明显的倾向，即模仿或模仿他人的行为和态度，并积极影响彼此的意见。在大量的经验背景下，公开披露的意见并不一定与内部意见一致，导致了复杂的社会影响动态。我们研究在意见形成过程中，伪善在多大程度上得以维持，以及隐藏的意见如何将群体中的趋同转变为共识。我们建立并分析了一个带有伪善的选民模型的修改版本，在一个完全图中，两个备选方案之间存在中性竞争。我们从不同的初始条件比较这一过程，在外部(显露的)和内部(隐藏的)层中改变两种观点的比例。根据我们的结果，虚伪总是延长达成共识所需的时间。在一个完整的图中，这个时间跨度随着组的大小线性增加。我们发现，群体层面的意见产生分为两个阶段：(1)一个快速而定向的过程，在这个过程中，两种伪君子的数量相等；(2)意见的缓慢、随机漂移。在阶段(2)，外层的意见比例与内层的比例大致相等，即隐藏的意见与群体层面的显性意见没有显著差异。此外，我们还发现，最初的意见丰富性，而不是最初的伪善盛行，预测了平均共识时间，并决定了意见的获胜概率。这些见解突显出，在中性条件下形成共识时，虚伪并不重要。我们的结果对民意调查中隐藏的选民偏好具有重要的社会影响，并提高了我们对在比传统选民模型更现实的环境中形成意见的理解。
Humans have a demonstrated tendency to copy or imitate the behavior and attitude of others and actively influence each other’s opinions. In plenty of empirical contexts, publicly revealed opinions are not necessarily in line with internal opinions, causing complex social influence dynamics. We study to what extent hypocrisy is sustained during opinion formation and how hidden opinions change the convergence to consensus in a group. We build and analyze a modified version of the voter model with hypocrisy in a complete graph with a neutral competition between two alternatives. We compare the process from various initial conditions, varying the proportions between the two opinions in the external (revealed) and internal (hidden) layer. According to our results, hypocrisy always prolongs the time needed for reaching a consensus. In a complete graph, this time span increases linearly with group size. We find that the group-level opinion emerges in two steps: (1) a fast and directional process, during which the number of the two kinds of hypocrites equalizes; and (2) a slower, random drift of opinions. During stage (2), the ratio of opinions in the external layer is approximately equal to the ratio in the internal layer; that is, the hidden opinions do not differ significantly from the revealed ones at the group level. We furthermore find that the initial abundances of opinions, but not the initial prevalence of hypocrisy, predicts the mean consensus time and determines the opinions’ probabilities of winning. These insights highlight the unimportance of hypocrisy in consensus formation under neutral conditions. Our results have important societal implications in relation to hidden voter preferences in polls and improve our understanding of opinion formation in a more realistic setting than that of conventional voter models.
影响因子：
7.6
作者：
PRENTICE, DA;MILLER, DT
通讯作者：
MILLER, DT
影响因子：
5
作者：
Adams, SA;Matthews, CE;Hebert, JR
通讯作者：
Hebert, JR
影响因子：
2.4
作者：
Sood, V.;Antal, Tibor;Redner, S.
通讯作者：
Redner, S.