Adding fossil occupancy trajectories to the assessment of modern extinction risk-猫眼课题宝

将化石占据轨迹添加到现代灭绝风险的评估中

DOI：

10.1098/rsbl.2015.0813

发表时间：

2016

期刊：

Biology Letters

影响因子：

3.3

通讯作者：

中科院分区：

生物学2区

文献类型：

作者：

Kiessling W;Kocsis ÁT

除了帮助识别通常与灭绝风险有关的物种特征外，化石记录还可能与评估现存物种的灭绝风险直接相关。常设的地理分布或占用是一个强有力的预测最近和过去的灭绝风险，但占用的变化的作用是不太广泛的评估。在这里，我们证明，根据新生代的海洋物种的化石记录，占用和其时间轨迹是风险的重要决定因素。基于灭绝物种，我们开发了一个模型的加性和互动的影响，占用和其时间变化的灭绝风险。我们用这个模型来预测现存物种的灭绝风险。这些预测表明，平均而言，海洋物种面临中等风险。然而，一些物种似乎正在长期减少，并可能面临潜在的灭绝风险，而目前的风险评估没有考虑到这一点。

Besides helping to identify species traits that are commonly linked to extinction risk, the fossil record may also be directly relevant for assessing the extinction risk of extant species. Standing geographical distribution or occupancy is a strong predictor of both recent and past extinction risk, but the role of changes in occupancy is less widely assessed. Here we demonstrate, based on the Cenozoic fossil record of marine species, that both occupancy and its temporal trajectory are significant determinants of risk. Based on extinct species we develop a model on the additive and interacting effects of occupancy and its temporal changes on extinction risk. We use this model to predict extinction risk of extant species. The predictions suggest a moderate risk for marine species on average. However, some species seem to be on a long-term decline and potentially at a latent extinction risk, which is not considered in current risk assessments.