An improved numerical model for epidemic transmission and infection risks assessment in indoor environment.
An improved numerical model for epidemic transmission and infection risks assessment in indoor environment.
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室内环境中流行病传播和感染风险评估的改进数值模型
DOI：
10.1016/j.jaerosci.2021.105943
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发表时间：
2022-05
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Tu J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shang Y;Dong J;Tian L;He F;Tu J
在预期于二零二四年全球大规模疫苗接种覆盖之前，社交距离仍将是遏制COVID-19的关键措施。控制办公室内的病毒爆发是优先事项，以减轻COVID-19及未来潜在大流行病造成的社会经济负担。然而，“SARS-CoV-2的传播距离是多少”和“办公室的适当通风率是多少”一直在争论之中。在没有对感染风险进行定量评估的情况下，一些研究对大多数国家目前采用的1-2 m社交距离政策提出了挑战，并建议需要更长的社交距离规则，因为咳嗽喷出的飞沫的最大传播距离可达3-10 m。随着Delta变种等病毒变种的出现，以往社交距离规则的适用性也受到质疑。为了解决上述问题，本研究进行了瞬态计算流体动力学（CFD）模拟，以评估在平静和风的情况下的感染风险。计算出的社会距离指数（SDI）表明，由于蒸发较弱，湿度较低导致感染风险较高。办公室感染风险对社会距离的敏感性高于通风量。在标准通风条件下，当咳嗽是主要传播途径时，1.7 m-1.8 m的社交距离足以在平静情况下达到低感染概率（PI）目标。然而，在风的情况下（0.25米/秒的室内风），需要2.8米的距离来遏制野生型病毒，3米不足以遏制德尔塔变异体的传播。本研究中开发的数值方法为评估室内环境中的COVID-19感染风险提供了一个框架。预测的PI将有利于政府和监管机构制定适当的社交距离和通风规则的办公室。
Social distance will remain the key measure to contain COVID-19 before the global widespread vaccination coverage expected in 2024. Containing the virus outbreak in the office is prioritised to relieve socio-economic burdens caused by COVID-19 and potential pandemics in the future. However, “what is the transmissible distance of SARS-CoV-2” and “what are the appropriate ventilation rates in the office” have been under debate. Without quantitative evaluation of the infection risk, some studies challenged the current social distance policies of 1–2 m adopted by most countries and suggested that longer social distance rule is required as the maximum transmission distance of cough ejected droplets could reach 3–10 m. With the emergence of virus variants such as the Delta variant, the applicability of previous social distance rules are also in doubt. To address the above problem, this study conducted transient Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations to evaluate the infection risks under calm and wind scenarios. The calculated Social Distance Index (SDI) indicates that lower humidity leads to a higher infection risk due to weaker evaporation. The infection risk in office was found more sensitive to social distance than ventilation rate. In standard ventilation conditions, social distance of 1.7 m–1.8 m is sufficient distances to reach low probability of infection (PI) target in a calm scenario when coughing is the dominant transmission route. However in the wind scenario (0.25 m/s indoor wind), distance of 2.8 m is required to contain the wild virus type and 3 m is insufficient to contain the spread of the Delta variant. The numerical methods developed in this study provide a framework to evaluate the COVID-19 infection risk in indoor environment. The predicted PI will be beneficial for governments and regulators to make appropriate social-distance and ventilation rules in the office.
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影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Miller SL;Clements N;Elliott SA;Subhash SS;Eagan A;Radonovich LJ
通讯作者：
Radonovich LJ
使用多分量欧拉-拉格朗日方法对不均匀湿度场中咳嗽飞沫的蒸发进行建模
影响因子：
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
Maynard, AD
影响因子：
6.8
作者：
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通讯作者：
Risch, Martin