Estimating individual and household reproduction numbers in an emerging epidemic.
Estimating individual and household reproduction numbers in an emerging epidemic.
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估计新兴流行病中的个体和家庭繁殖数量。
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0000758
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发表时间：
2007-08-22
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Fraser C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fraser C
生殖数被定义为典型病例感染人数的平均数，在跟踪传染病爆发方面发挥着核心作用。本文的目的是开发方法，估计繁殖数量是足够简单，他们可以应用有限的数据或在真实的时间在爆发。我提出了一个新的估计个人繁殖数，它描述了在一个时间点的流行病的状态，而不是跟踪个人随着时间的推移，并讨论了一些潜在的好处。然后，为了捕捉更多的细节，微观模拟显示是重要的爆发动态，我分析了家庭内和家庭之间的传播模型，并开发了一种方法来估计家庭繁殖数，定义为家庭数量感染每个受感染的家庭。这种方法是通过使用历史数据的流感和麻疹的传播的数值模拟进行验证，并获得这些病毒的可能出现的流行病的估计。我认为，家庭生殖数量是有用的，在评估措施的影响，针对家庭的隔离，检疫，疫苗接种或预防性治疗，以及措施，如社会距离和学校或工作场所的关闭，限制家庭之间的传播，所有这些都发挥了关键作用，在当前的思想对未来的传染病缓解。
Reproduction numbers, defined as averages of the number of people infected by a typical case, play a central role in tracking infectious disease outbreaks. The aim of this paper is to develop methods for estimating reproduction numbers which are simple enough that they could be applied with limited data or in real time during an outbreak. I present a new estimator for the individual reproduction number, which describes the state of the epidemic at a point in time rather than tracking individuals over time, and discuss some potential benefits. Then, to capture more of the detail that micro-simulations have shown is important in outbreak dynamics, I analyse a model of transmission within and between households, and develop a method to estimate the household reproduction number, defined as the number of households infected by each infected household. This method is validated by numerical simulations of the spread of influenza and measles using historical data, and estimates are obtained for would-be emerging epidemics of these viruses. I argue that the household reproduction number is useful in assessing the impact of measures that target the household for isolation, quarantine, vaccination or prophylactic treatment, and measures such as social distancing and school or workplace closures which limit between-household transmission, all of which play a key role in current thinking on future infectious disease mitigation.
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1918年大流行性流感的传播性。
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Mills CE;Robins JM;Lipsitch M
通讯作者：
Lipsitch M
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0510873103
发表时间：
2006-08-15
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
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通讯作者：
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DOI：
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发表时间：
2000-01-01
影响因子：
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作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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