Risks for Public Health and Social Infrastructure in Russian Arctic under Climate Change and Permafrost Degradation
Risks for Public Health and Social Infrastructure in Russian Arctic under Climate Change and Permafrost Degradation
复制标题
气候变化和永久冻土退化对俄罗斯北极地区公共卫生和社会基础设施的风险
作者：
B. Revich;D. O. Eliseev;D. Shaposhnikov
本研究分析了俄罗斯北极地区持续气候变化导致的永久冻土退化对公众健康和生活质量的风险。在俄罗斯的永久冻土区有200多个西伯利亚炭疽牛的墓地。永久冻土的退化带来了受感染动物冰冻尸体解冻和传染病传播的风险。永久冻土退化导致有毒废物渗入环境。这些废物中含有汞，汞会迁移到河流中，在鱼类体内形成甲基汞（MeHg）。与永久冻土退化有关的其他风险包括对现有社会基础设施（住房、保健设施、道路等）的破坏。由于永久冻土退化而出现的各种公共福祉风险在本研究中得到解决。建立并计算了相对危险度指数，以表征未来西伯利亚炭疽热爆发的可能性。这些指数将永久冻土退化的速度和西伯利亚炭疽牛埋葬的数量与持续变暖下70个市辖区当地人口中再次出现西伯利亚炭疽的潜在危险联系起来。评估了对公共住房、保健设施和高速公路的预期损害。分析了俄罗斯北极各地区卫生保健的可及性。估计了在永久冻土上修建的住宅建筑、保健设施和道路可能遭到破坏的各种情况下的经济成本。
This study analyzes the risks to public health and life quality in the conditions of permafrost degradation caused by the ongoing climate change in the Russian Arctic. There are more than 200 Siberian anthrax cattle burial grounds in the Russian permafrost regions. Permafrost degradation poses the risks of thawing of frozen carcasses of the infected animals and propagation of infectious diseases. Permafrost degradation leads to infiltration of toxic waste in the environment. Such waste contains mercury, which migrates into the rivers and forms methylmercury (MeHg) in fish. Other risks associated with permafrost degradation include damage to the existing social infrastructure (housing, health-care facilities, roads, etc.). Various risks to public well-being that emerge because of permafrost degradation were addressed in this study. Relative hazard indices were developed and calculated to characterize the probability of outbreaks of Siberian anthrax in the future. These indices linked the rates of permafrost degradation and the number of Siberian anthrax cattle burials to the potential hazard of re-emergence of Siberian anthrax among local populations in 70 municipal districts under the ongoing warming. The expected damage to public housing, health-care facilities, and motorways was assessed. Accessibility of health care in various regions of the Russian Arctic was analyzed. The economic costs associated with various scenarios of possible destruction of residential buildings, health-care facilities, and roads built on permafrost were estimated.
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Streletskiy, Dmitry A.;Suter, Luis J.;Eliseev, Dmitry O.
通讯作者：
Eliseev, Dmitry O.