Predicting potential global and future distributions of the African armyworm (Spodoptera exempta) using species distribution models.
Predicting potential global and future distributions of the African armyworm (Spodoptera exempta) using species distribution models.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-022-19983-y
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发表时间：
2022-09-28
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Wilson, Kenneth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gomez-Undiano, Irene;Musavi, Francis;Mushobozi, Wilfred L.;David, Grace M.;Day, Roger;Early, Regan;Wilson, Kenneth
入侵物种历来是全球贸易和运输带来的问题。为了帮助控制和管理这些物种，物种分布模型（SDM）已被用来帮助预测可能的扩展区域。我们的焦点生物，非洲粘虫（AAW），历史上一直被认为是非洲的一种重要害虫，幼虫密度很高，爆发时可能对主要作物造成巨大的经济损失。这项研究的目标是绘制AAW在该地区未来三种情况下的当前和潜在分布图，以及如果该物种入侵其他领土，则可能的全球分布，使用来自肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚的700多份幼虫爆发报告的40年数据。目前在东非的分布与其先前已知的分布一致，以及其他地区的草地和农田，这是该物种的宿主植物。不同的未来气候情景表明，东非到今天的潜在分布大致相似。预测的全球分布显示了AAW已经报告的地区，但也显示了美洲的许多潜在地区，如果运输，环境条件适合AAW茁壮成长，它可能成为入侵物种。
Invasive species have historically been a problem derived from global trade and transport. To aid in the control and management of these species, species distribution models (SDMs) have been used to help predict possible areas of expansion. Our focal organism, the African Armyworm (AAW), has historically been known as an important pest species in Africa, occurring at high larval densities and causing outbreaks that can cause enormous economic damage to staple crops. The goal of this study is to map the AAW’s present and potential distribution in three future scenarios for the region, and the potential global distribution if the species were to invade other territories, using 40 years of data on more than 700 larval outbreak reports from Kenya and Tanzania. The present distribution in East Africa coincides with its previously known distribution, as well as other areas of grassland and cropland, which are the host plants for this species. The different future climatic scenarios show broadly similar potential distributions in East Africa to the present day. The predicted global distribution shows areas where the AAW has already been reported, but also shows many potential areas in the Americas where, if transported, environmental conditions are suitable for AAW to thrive and where it could become an invasive species.
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