Estimation of newborn risk for child or adolescent obesity: lessons from longitudinal birth cohorts.
Estimation of newborn risk for child or adolescent obesity: lessons from longitudinal birth cohorts.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0049919
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Froguel P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Morandi A;Meyre D;Lobbens S;Kleinman K;Kaakinen M;Rifas-Shiman SL;Vatin V;Gaget S;Pouta A;Hartikainen AL;Laitinen J;Ruokonen A;Das S;Khan AA;Elliott P;Maffeis C;Gillman MW;Järvelin MR;Froguel P
预防肥胖应在出生后尽早开始。我们的目标是建立临床有用的方程来估计新生儿后期肥胖的风险，作为针对全球肥胖流行的重点早期预防的第一步。我们分析了1986年芬兰北部出生队列（NFBC1986） （N = 4032），从传统的危险因素（父母体重指数、出生体重、母亲妊娠体重增加、行为和社会指标）和39个体重指数/肥胖相关多态性建立的遗传评分中得出儿童和青少年肥胖的预测方程。我们在1503名意大利儿童的回顾性队列和1032名美国儿童的前瞻性队列中进行了验证分析。在NFBC1986中，传统危险因素预测儿童肥胖、青少年肥胖和儿童期持续肥胖的累积准确性较好：AUROC分别为0.78[0.74 - 0.82]、0.75[0.71 - 0.79]和0.85[0.80 - 0.90]（均p< 0.001）。加入遗传评分后，辨别能力提高≤1%。NFBC1986儿童肥胖方程应用于意大利和美国队列时仍然具有可接受的准确性（AUROC分别为0.70[0.63 - 0.77]和0.73[0.67 - 0.80]），并且从意大利和美国数据集中新得出的两个儿童肥胖方程在各自队列中显示出良好的准确性（AUROC = 0.74[0.69 - 0.79]和0.79[0.73 - 0.84]）（均p< 0.001）。儿童肥胖的三个方程式被转换成简单的Excel风险计算器，用于潜在的临床应用。这项研究提供了第一个方便的工具，通过容易记录的信息来预测新生儿的儿童肥胖，同时它表明，目前已知的遗传变异对这种预测几乎没有用处。
Prevention of obesity should start as early as possible after birth. We aimed to build clinically useful equations estimating the risk of later obesity in newborns, as a first step towards focused early prevention against the global obesity epidemic. We analyzed the lifetime Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986 (NFBC1986) (N = 4,032) to draw predictive equations for childhood and adolescent obesity from traditional risk factors (parental BMI, birth weight, maternal gestational weight gain, behaviour and social indicators), and a genetic score built from 39 BMI/obesity-associated polymorphisms. We performed validation analyses in a retrospective cohort of 1,503 Italian children and in a prospective cohort of 1,032 U.S. children. In the NFBC1986, the cumulative accuracy of traditional risk factors predicting childhood obesity, adolescent obesity, and childhood obesity persistent into adolescence was good: AUROC = 0·78[0·74–0.82], 0·75[0·71–0·79] and 0·85[0·80–0·90] respectively (all p<0·001). Adding the genetic score produced discrimination improvements ≤1%. The NFBC1986 equation for childhood obesity remained acceptably accurate when applied to the Italian and the U.S. cohort (AUROC = 0·70[0·63–0·77] and 0·73[0·67–0·80] respectively) and the two additional equations for childhood obesity newly drawn from the Italian and the U.S. datasets showed good accuracy in respective cohorts (AUROC = 0·74[0·69–0·79] and 0·79[0·73–0·84]) (all p<0·001). The three equations for childhood obesity were converted into simple Excel risk calculators for potential clinical use. This study provides the first example of handy tools for predicting childhood obesity in newborns by means of easily recorded information, while it shows that currently known genetic variants have very little usefulness for such prediction.
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通讯作者：
Barroso, Ines
DOI：
10.1001/archpediatrics.2012.131
发表时间：
2012-06-01
影响因子：
--
作者：
Belsky, Daniel W.;Moffitt, Terrie E.;Caspi, Avshalom
通讯作者：
Caspi, Avshalom