The role of vaccination coverage, individual behaviors, and the public health response in the control of measles epidemics: an agent-based simulation for California.
The role of vaccination coverage, individual behaviors, and the public health response in the control of measles epidemics: an agent-based simulation for California.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1186/s12889-015-1766-6
复制
发表时间：
2015-05-01
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Porco TC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu F;Enanoria WT;Zipprich J;Blumberg S;Harriman K;Ackley SF;Wheaton WD;Allpress JL;Porco TC
尽管在美国消除了地方性麻疹传播，但麻疹病例继续发生在易感人群中。疾病易感性的聚集可能威胁群体免疫力，并影响高度接种疫苗人群中疾病爆发的可能性。以前的研究已经研究了接触者追踪在控制聚集人群中传染病方面的作用，但没有明确地使用基于代理的模型对公共卫生反应进行建模。我们开发了一个基于代理人的麻疹传播模拟模型，使用重建流行病学动力学（FRED）的框架和RTI国际维护的综合人口数据库。麻疹传播的模拟是基于不同地方的个人之间的相互作用：家庭，学校，日托，工作场所和社区。该模型模拟了不同水平的免疫聚集、疫苗接种覆盖率和接触调查，以及个人行为和/或卫生部门反应延迟引起的延迟。我们研究了这些特征对不受控制的麻疹暴发的概率和在将一个指示病例引入合成人群后365天内暴发规模的影响。我们发现，通过接触调查和中等接触率，可以预防大规模麻疹暴发，方法是：（1）非常高的疫苗接种覆盖率（≥ 95%）和中等至低水平的免疫聚集（≤ 0.5）对于年龄小于或等于18岁的个人，或（2）中等疫苗接种覆盖率（85%或90%），个体（≤18岁）无免疫聚集性，干预延迟时间短，接触者可追踪的概率高。在没有接触调查的情况下，麻疹暴发可以通过对中等接触率的个人（≤18岁）无免疫聚集的最高疫苗接种覆盖率来预防;但对于最高接触率，即使是对个人（≤18岁）无免疫聚集的最高覆盖率也不能完全预防麻疹暴发。模拟结果表明，疫苗接种覆盖率，免疫聚集性，接触调查在预防麻疹暴发的重要性。本文的在线版本（doi：10.1186/s12889-015-1766-6）包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
Measles cases continue to occur among susceptible individuals despite the elimination of endemic measles transmission in the United States. Clustering of disease susceptibility can threaten herd immunity and impact the likelihood of disease outbreaks in a highly vaccinated population. Previous studies have examined the role of contact tracing to control infectious diseases among clustered populations, but have not explicitly modeled the public health response using an agent-based model. We developed an agent-based simulation model of measles transmission using the Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics (FRED) and the Synthetic Population Database maintained by RTI International. The simulation of measles transmission was based on interactions among individuals in different places: households, schools, daycares, workplaces, and neighborhoods. The model simulated different levels of immunity clustering, vaccination coverage, and contact investigations with delays caused by individuals’ behaviors and/or the delay in a health department’s response. We examined the effects of these characteristics on the probability of uncontrolled measles outbreaks and the outbreak size in 365 days after the introduction of one index case into a synthetic population. We found that large measles outbreaks can be prevented with contact investigations and moderate contact rates by having (1) a very high vaccination coverage (≥ 95%) with a moderate to low level of immunity clustering (≤ 0.5) for individuals aged less than or equal to 18 years, or (2) a moderate vaccination coverage (85% or 90%) with no immunity clustering for individuals (≤18 years of age), a short intervention delay, and a high probability that a contact can be traced. Without contact investigations, measles outbreaks may be prevented by the highest vaccination coverage with no immunity clustering for individuals (≤18 years of age) with moderate contact rates; but for the highest contact rates, even the highest coverage with no immunity clustering for individuals (≤18 years of age) cannot completely prevent measles outbreaks. The simulation results demonstrated the importance of vaccination coverage, clustering of immunity, and contact investigations in preventing uncontrolled measles outbreaks. The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-015-1766-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Dallaire, Frederic;De Serres, Gaston;Tipples, Graham
通讯作者：
Tipples, Graham
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
IMAN, RL;HELTON, JC;CAMPBELL, JE
通讯作者：
CAMPBELL, JE
影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Grefenstette JJ;Brown ST;Rosenfeld R;DePasse J;Stone NT;Cooley PC;Wheaton WD;Fyshe A;Galloway DD;Sriram A;Guclu H;Abraham T;Burke DS
通讯作者：
Burke DS
DOI：
10.2307/2343186
发表时间：
1960-01-01
期刊：
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-GENERAL
影响因子：
--
作者：
BARTLETT, MS
通讯作者：
BARTLETT, MS
影响因子：
2
作者：
BLACK, FL
通讯作者：
BLACK, FL