Emissions projections for US utilities through 2050
Emissions projections for US utilities through 2050
复制标题
到 2050 年美国公用事业的排放预测
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ac1628
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Grubert, Emily
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Grubert, Emily
脱碳是一项紧迫的全球政策优先事项，美国和其他地方越来越多地朝着零碳目标迈进。考虑到以化石燃料为基础的能源使用电气化和电力供应脱碳的联合脱碳战略，了解电力排放如何随时间变化对评估政策排序战略具有特别的价值。例如，电力系统是否有可能足够快地脱碳以推动电气化，即使是在相对碳密集型的系统上？虽然电力部门的脱碳已经得到了广泛的研究，但有限的研究集中在评估公用事业层面的排放因素，这是电气化战略的影响实施的地方。考虑到现有的发电机组、所有权结构和发电机寿命，可以在公用事业水平上对承诺排放进行建模。发电机寿命是使用过去二十年类似机组的装机加权平均退休年龄来建模的，这是一个简单的经验结果变量，反映了机组可能合理预期运行的时间长度。通过对批发电力市场中的发电机进行评估，并为新建发电设计方案，一阶年平均排放因子可以在公用事业水平上以几十年的时间尺度进行预测。这封信提出了到2050年美国特定公用事业年平均排放预测（温室气体和空气污染物）的新模型，使用2019年基准年来定义现有资产特征。在脱碳电力行业，创建和评估动态环境强度指标的基于场景的预测，可以为生命周期和其他环境评估研究提供信息，以评估随时间推移的影响，此外，还可以突出与化石燃料发电机组轮换时长期资本投资的时间和地点相关的特定机会和风险。模型结果还可用于将公用事业公司的脱碳承诺和时间表与其资产基础相关联。
Decarbonization is an urgent global policy priority, with increasing movement towards zero-carbon targets in the United States and elsewhere. Given the joint decarbonization strategies of electrifying fossil fuel-based energy uses and decarbonizing the electricity supply, understanding how electricity emissions might change over time is of particular value in evaluating policy sequencing strategies. For example, is the electricity system likely to decarbonize quickly enough to motivate electrification even on relatively carbon-intensive systems? Although electricity sector decarbonization has been widely studied, limited research has focused on evaluating emissions factors at the utility level, which is where the impact of electrification strategies is operationalized. Given the existing fleet of electricity generators, ownership structures, and generator lifespans, committed emissions can be modeled at the utility level. Generator lifespans are modeled using capacity-weighted mean age-on-retirement for similar units over the last two decades, a simple empirical outcome variable reflecting the length of time the unit might reasonably be expected to operate. By also evaluating generators in wholesale power markets and designing scenarios for new-build generation, first-order annual average emissions factors can be projected forward on a multidecadal time scale at the utility level. This letter presents a new model of utility-specific annual average emissions projections (greenhouse gases and air pollutants) through 2050 for the United States, using a 2019 base year to define existing asset characteristics. Enabling the creation and evaluation of scenario-based projections for dynamic environmental intensity metrics in a decarbonizing electricity sector can inform life cycle and other environmental assessment studies that evaluate impact over time, in addition to highlighting particular opportunities and risks associated with the timing and location of long-lived capital investments as the fossil fuel electricity generator fleet turns over. Model results can also be used to contextualize utilities' decarbonization commitments and timelines against their asset bases.
影响因子：
56.7
作者：
Alova, Galina
通讯作者：
Alova, Galina
电动汽车与内燃机汽车的生命周期评估：综述
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
Materials Today: Proceedings
影响因子：
--
作者：
Shrey Verma;G. Dwivedi;P. Verma
通讯作者：
P. Verma
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Schivley, Greg;Azevedo, Ines;Samaras, Constantine
通讯作者：
Samaras, Constantine