Probabilistic assessment of storm surge potential due to explosive cyclogenesis in the northwest Pacific region
Probabilistic assessment of storm surge potential due to explosive cyclogenesis in the northwest Pacific region
复制标题
西北太平洋地区爆炸性气旋发生造成的风暴潮可能性的概率评估
DOI：
10.1080/21664250.2019.1651519
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Watanabe Y.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Saruwatari A.;Fukuhara K.;Watanabe Y.
西北太平洋地区形成的爆炸性气旋根据其演化过程可分为三大类型：I型气旋在日本海上空发展，II型气旋在大陆上产生并向太平洋移动，III型气旋在太平洋中沿日本列岛向北移动。我们对过去的风暴潮进行了计算实验，根据冬季气旋的现实气象情景下气旋演化的类型，找出当地海平面的统计特征，旨在提供东北亚地区可能出现的海平面上升情况。在这里，我们表明，受气旋轨迹海岸线方向控制的当地海平面的放大是由气旋的演化类型定义的，而演化类型是根据气旋的轨迹而不是强度来分类的。无论演化类型如何，根室湾都是西北太平洋地区最脆弱的地区。由于 I 型气旋，面向日本海北部和鄂霍次克海的其他某些半封闭海岸预计也会出现严重风暴潮。本研究中介绍的根据气旋演化类型对海平面进行概率评估可能有助于评估潜在灾害。
Explosive cyclones formed in the northwest Pacific region can be categorized into three major types based on their evolution: Type-I cyclones develop over the Sea of Japan, Type-II are generated on the continent and move toward the Pacific Ocean, and Type-III travel northward in the Pacific Ocean along the Japanese archipelago. We performed computational experiments of past storm surges to find statistical features of local sea levels, depending on the types of the cyclone evolution under a realistic meteorological scenario of winter cyclones, with an aim to provide possible sea-level rise expected in the northeast Asia. Here, we show that amplification of local sea level, governed by the orientation of coastal lines with cyclone tracks, is defined by the evolution type that is classified by their trajectories, rather than the intensity, of the cyclone. Nemuro Bay is the most vulnerable site in the northwest Pacific region regardless of the evolution type. Severe storm surges are also expected along certain other semi-enclosed coasts facing the northern Sea of Japan and Sea of Okhotsk due to Type-I cyclones. The probabilistic evaluation of sea levels depending on the cyclone evolution type as introduced in this study may be useful for evaluating potential disasters.
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影响因子：
3.2
作者：
A. Kuwano‐Yoshida;Y. Asuma
通讯作者：
A. Kuwano‐Yoshida;Y. Asuma
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Lehmann J;Coumou D
通讯作者：
Coumou D
影响因子：
3
作者：
A. Catalano;A. Broccoli
通讯作者：
A. Catalano;A. Broccoli
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
M. Yamaguchi;R. Sakai;Masayuki Kyoda;T. Komori;T. Kadowaki
通讯作者：
M. Yamaguchi;R. Sakai;Masayuki Kyoda;T. Komori;T. Kadowaki
2014年北海道东海岸爆炸性气旋的波浪和风暴潮耦合模拟
DOI：
10.2208/kaigan.73.i_193
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kenzou Kumagai;Sooyoul Kim;D. Tsujio;H. Mase;T. Tsuji
通讯作者：
T. Tsuji