Sensitivity of marine protected area network connectivity to atmospheric variability.

Sensitivity of marine protected area network connectivity to atmospheric variability.
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DOI:
10.1098/rsos.160494
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发表时间:
2016-11
影响因子:
3.5
通讯作者:
Roberts JM
Roberts JM
中科院分区:
综合性期刊3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Fox AD;Henry LA;Corne DW;Roberts JM

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国际社会正在努力建立连接良好的海洋保护区系统,到2020年覆盖至少10%的海洋。但人们对海洋生态系统连通性的性质和动态了解甚少,气候变化的影响尚未得到解决。我们使用了40年运行的粒子跟踪模型来研究MPA网络的栖息地形成冷水珊瑚在东北大西洋的大气周期和幼虫行为驱动的幼虫扩散的变化的敏感性。Lophelia pertusa幼虫的轨迹有很强的相关性,北大西洋涛动(NAO),在东北大西洋的年际大气环流变率的主导模式。轨迹的变化显着改变了网络的连通性和源-汇动态,正相NAO条件下产生一个连接良好,但不对称的网络连接从西到东。负相NAO减少连接,但值得注意的是,一些幼虫跟踪向西流动的电流对珊瑚种群在大西洋中脊。图形理论度量显示海山和离岸银行在幼体供应和维持整个网络的连通性方面发挥的关键作用。幼虫寿命和行为介导的传播和连接,与寿命较短和被动的幼虫减少连接。我们的结论是,现有的MPA网络是容易受到大气驱动的海洋环流的变化。
International efforts are underway to establish well-connected systems of marine protected areas (MPAs) covering at least 10% of the ocean by 2020. But the nature and dynamics of ocean ecosystem connectivity are poorly understood, with unresolved effects of climate variability. We used 40-year runs of a particle tracking model to examine the sensitivity of an MPA network for habitat-forming cold-water corals in the northeast Atlantic to changes in larval dispersal driven by atmospheric cycles and larval behaviour. Trajectories of Lophelia pertusa larvae were strongly correlated to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant pattern of interannual atmospheric circulation variability over the northeast Atlantic. Variability in trajectories significantly altered network connectivity and source–sink dynamics, with positive phase NAO conditions producing a well-connected but asymmetrical network connected from west to east. Negative phase NAO produced reduced connectivity, but notably some larvae tracked westward-flowing currents towards coral populations on the mid-Atlantic ridge. Graph theoretical metrics demonstrate critical roles played by seamounts and offshore banks in larval supply and maintaining connectivity across the network. Larval longevity and behaviour mediated dispersal and connectivity, with shorter lived and passive larvae associated with reduced connectivity. We conclude that the existing MPA network is vulnerable to atmospheric-driven changes in ocean circulation.
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