COVID-19 lockdowns and demographically-relevant Google Trends: A cross-national analysis.
COVID-19 lockdowns and demographically-relevant Google Trends: A cross-national analysis.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0248072
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Solaz A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Berger LM;Ferrari G;Leturcq M;Panico L;Solaz A
COVID-19的传播以及由此导致的地方和国家封锁对人口趋势产生了一系列潜在影响。虽然对死亡率的影响以及在某种程度上对短期移徙流动的影响已开始记录在案，但衡量对家庭人口的实际影响还为时过早。为了深入了解封锁对家庭人口统计的潜在未来后果，我们使用跨国Google趋势搜索数据来探索与生育，关系形成和关系解除相关的单词搜索趋势是否在封锁后发生变化，与欧洲和美国的平均水平相比，封锁前水平。由于封锁在时间或强度上并没有被广泛预期或同步，我们利用了随着时间的推移和国家（和美国各州）之间的变化。我们使用面板事件研究设计和差异中的差异方法，并考虑到季节性趋势和平均国家级（或州级）搜索差异。我们发现封锁时间对婚礼和与避孕套使用相关的搜索，紧急避孕，怀孕测试和堕胎等术语的变化有统计学意义的影响，但几乎没有证据表明与生育相关的搜索发生了变化。对工会形成和解散的影响往往仅在封锁开始时具有统计学意义，并在封锁开始后约2至3个月恢复到平均水平，特别是在欧洲。与欧洲相比，美国的平均搜索水平的回报不太明显，即使是在实施封锁后的两到三个月。这可能是因为在美国，卫生和社会政策的应对措施不如欧洲那样界限分明，因此经济不确定性可能更大。因此，这种与流行病相关的经济不确定性可能会略微增加美国家庭形成行为中已经存在的两极分化。除了为更广泛的关于经济不确定性和家庭行为的文献做出贡献外，本文还提出了有效利用谷歌趋势数据的策略，例如进行相对比较和测试对异常值的敏感性，并提供了在尚未获得实际人口统计趋势数据时在人口统计研究中使用的模板和注意事项。
The spread of COVID-19 and resulting local and national lockdowns have a host of potential consequences for demographic trends. While impacts on mortality and, to some extent, short-term migration flows are beginning to be documented, it is too early to measure actual consequences for family demography. To gain insight into potential future consequences of the lockdown for family demography, we use cross-national Google Trends search data to explore whether trends in searches for words related to fertility, relationship formation, and relationship dissolution changed following lockdowns compared to average, pre-lockdown levels in Europe and the United States. Because lockdowns were not widely anticipated or simultaneous in timing or intensity, we exploit variability over time and between countries (and U.S. states). We use a panel event-study design and difference-in-differences methods, and account for seasonal trends and average country-level (or state-level) differences in searches. We find statistically significant impacts of lockdown timing on changes in searches for terms such as wedding and those related to condom use, emergency contraception, pregnancy tests, and abortion, but little evidence of changes in searches related to fertility. Impacts for union formation and dissolution tended to only be statistically significant at the start of a lockdown with a return to average-levels about 2 to 3 months after lockdown initiation, particularly in Europe. Compared to Europe, returns to average search levels were less evident for the U.S., even 2 to 3 months after lockdowns were introduced. This may be due to the fact, in the U.S., health and social policy responses were less demarcated than in Europe, such that economic uncertainty was likely of larger magnitude. Such pandemic-related economic uncertainty may therefore have the potential to slightly increase already existing polarization in family formation behaviours in the U.S. Alongside contributing to the wider literature on economic uncertainty and family behaviors, this paper also proposes strategies for efficient use of Google Trends data, such as making relative comparisons and testing sensitivity to outliers, and provides a template and cautions for their use in demographic research when actual demographic trends data are not yet available.
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DOI：
10.1177/0033354920976575
发表时间：
2021-03
期刊：
Public health reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974)
影响因子：
--
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
van Duin, Coen
影响因子：
3.7
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HAMPEL, FR
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
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