The Immediate Effect of COVID-19 Policies on Social-Distancing Behavior in the United States.
The Immediate Effect of COVID-19 Policies on Social-Distancing Behavior in the United States.
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DOI：
10.1177/0033354920976575
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发表时间：
2021-03
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Heydari B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Abouk R;Heydari B
尽管坊间证据表明2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）社交距离政策的有效性，但其在公众意识和自愿行动推动下的有效性仍有待确定。我们评估了疫情初期美国6项最常见的社交距离政策（全州居家令、有限居家令、非必要的企业关闭、大型集会禁令、学校关闭令以及餐厅和酒吧限制）的有效性。我们应用差异中的差异和事件研究方法来评估6个社交距离政策对谷歌发布的汇总的，匿名的每日位置数据的影响，这些数据涉及所有50个州和哥伦比亚特区的6个位置类别：零售和娱乐，杂货店和药店，公园，中转站，工作场所和住宅。我们比较了在2020年2月15日至4月25日期间，采用COVID-19相关政策的州与未采用此类政策的州在这些政策生效之前和之后的利益结果。全州范围内的呆在家里的命令对减少外出流动性的影响最大，从政策生效之前到之后，人们在家里度过的时间增加了2.5个百分点（15.2%）。对餐馆和酒吧的限制排在第二位，导致在家的人数增加了约1.4个百分点（8.5%）。其他4项政策并没有显著减少流动性。在COVID-19大流行的早期阶段，全州范围内的居家令以及对酒吧和餐馆的限制与流动性下降最为密切相关，而其他此类政策的潜在好处可能已经从自愿社交距离中获得。需要进一步研究，以了解在大流行后期，随着自愿社交距离的减弱，社交距离政策的效果如何变化。
Although anecdotal evidence indicates the effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) social-distancing policies, their effectiveness in relation to what is driven by public awareness and voluntary actions needs to be determined. We evaluated the effectiveness of the 6 most common social-distancing policies in the United States (statewide stay-at-home orders, limited stay-at-home orders, nonessential business closures, bans on large gatherings, school closure mandates, and limits on restaurants and bars) during the early stage of the pandemic. We applied difference-in-differences and event-study methodologies to evaluate the effect of the 6 social-distancing policies on Google-released aggregated, anonymized daily location data on movement trends over time by state for all 50 states and the District of Columbia in 6 location categories: retail and recreation, grocery stores and pharmacies, parks, transit stations, workplaces, and residences. We compared the outcome of interest in states that adopted COVID-19–related policies with states that did not adopt such policies, before and after these policies took effect during February 15–April 25, 2020. Statewide stay-at-home orders had the strongest effect on reducing out-of-home mobility and increased the time people spent at home by an estimated 2.5 percentage points (15.2%) from before to after policies took effect. Limits on restaurants and bars ranked second and resulted in an increase in presence at home by an estimated 1.4 percentage points (8.5%). The other 4 policies did not significantly reduce mobility. Statewide stay-at-home orders and limits on bars and restaurants were most closely linked to reduced mobility in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, whereas the potential benefits of other such policies may have already been reaped from voluntary social distancing. Further research is needed to understand how the effect of social-distancing policies changes as voluntary social distancing wanes during later stages of a pandemic.
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