Dynamic network strategies for SARS-CoV-2 control on a cruise ship.
Dynamic network strategies for SARS-CoV-2 control on a cruise ship.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100488
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发表时间：
2021-12
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Omer SB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jenness SM;Willebrand KS;Malik AA;Lopman BA;Omer SB
SARS-CoV-2爆发发生在几艘航海船只上，这是由这些船只上的高密度接触网络驱动的。需要考虑到现实接触网络的最佳预防和控制策略。我们开发了一个基于网络的SARS-CoV-2钻石公主疫情的传播模型，以描述传播动态，并估计疫情控制和预防措施的流行病学影响。该模型代表了为应对疾病爆发而对船舶实施大规模网络封锁之前和之后的乘客-乘客、乘客-船员和船员-船员接触的动态多层网络结构。模型情景评估了网络封锁时间的变化、子网内接触强度的降低以及基于诊断的病例隔离对疫情预防的影响。我们发现，只有在网络封锁期间对接触模式进行极端限制，以及理想化的临床应对方案，才能避免COVID-19大爆发。与充分的疫情预防相关的接触网络变化是限制乘客在客舱内，限制乘客与机组人员的接触。在许多巡航环境中，预防爆发所需的临床应对策略可能不可行：使用理想的PCR检测（100%灵敏度）进行早期大规模筛查，并在诊断后立即隔离病例。个人防护设备（例如，在这种环境下，由于船舶封锁后的大部分传输发生在客舱内的乘客之间，而这些乘客并没有一直使用口罩，因此影响有限。在COVID-19疫苗等长期有效的解决方案广泛可用之前，应考虑对此类可选休闲活动实施公共卫生限制。
SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks have occurred on several nautical vessels, driven by the high-density contact networks on these ships. Optimal strategies for prevention and control that account for realistic contact networks are needed. We developed a network-based transmission model for SARS-CoV-2 on the Diamond Princess outbreak to characterize transmission dynamics and to estimate the epidemiological impact of outbreak control and prevention measures. This model represented the dynamic multi-layer network structure of passenger-passenger, passenger-crew, and crew-crew contacts, both before and after the large-scale network lockdown imposed on the ship in response to the disease outbreak. Model scenarios evaluated variations in the timing of the network lockdown, reduction in contact intensity within the sub-networks, and diagnosis-based case isolation on outbreak prevention. We found that only extreme restrictions in contact patterns during network lockdown and idealistic clinical response scenarios could avert a major COVID-19 outbreak. Contact network changes associated with adequate outbreak prevention were the restriction of passengers to their cabins, with limited passenger-crew contacts. Clinical response strategies required for outbreak prevention may be infeasible in many cruise settings: early mass screening with an ideal PCR test (100 % sensitivity) and immediate case isolation upon diagnosis. Personal protective equipment (e.g., facemasks) had limited impact in this environment because the majority of transmissions after the ship lockdown occurred between passengers in cabins where masks were not consistently used. Public health restrictions on optional leisure activities like these should be considered until longer-term effective solutions such as a COVID-19 vaccine become widely available.
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影响因子：
--
作者：
Krivitsky PN;Handcock MS;Morris M
通讯作者：
Morris M
2020年2月，在日本横滨，在巡航船上的Covid-19爆发流行病学。
影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Expert Taskforce for the COVID-19 Cruise Ship Outbreak
通讯作者：
Expert Taskforce for the COVID-19 Cruise Ship Outbreak
DOI：
10.1111/rssb.12014
发表时间：
2014-01-01
期刊：
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Krivitsky PN;Handcock MS
通讯作者：
Handcock MS
在新兴病原体爆发的建模中可避免的错误，并特别提及埃博拉病毒。
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2015.0347
发表时间：
2015-05-07
期刊：
Proceedings. Biological sciences
影响因子：
--
作者：
King AA;Domenech de Cellès M;Magpantay FM;Rohani P
通讯作者：
Rohani P
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Toni, Tina;Welch, David;Stumpf, Michael P. H.
通讯作者：
Stumpf, Michael P. H.