Dynamics of childhood growth and obesity: development and validation of a quantitative mathematical model.
Dynamics of childhood growth and obesity: development and validation of a quantitative mathematical model.
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DOI：
10.1016/s2213-8587(13)70051-2
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发表时间：
2013-10
影响因子：
44.5
通讯作者：
Chow, Carson C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hall, Kevin D.;Butte, Nancy F.;Swinburn, Boyd A.;Chow, Carson C.
临床医生和政策制定者需要能够定量预测儿童体重对肥胖干预措施的反应。我们开发并验证了儿童能量平衡的数学模型，该模型可以解释肥胖的健康生长和发展，并对体重管理干预措施进行定量预测。该模型经过校准以参考健康儿童的身体成分数据，并通过将模型预测与除用于构建模型的数据之外的数据进行比较来进行验证。该模型准确模拟了健康成长过程中参考数据中报告的身体成分和能量消耗的变化，并预测从5-18岁开始，男孩的能量摄入量大约每天增加1200大卡，女孩每天大约增加900大卡。与成人肥胖相比，儿童肥胖的发生需要摄入更多的过量能量。此外，该模型计算出的超重和肥胖儿童的过量能量摄入大大超过了根据生长图计算出的典型能量平衡。在人口层面，与 1976-80 年的类似儿童相比，2003-06 年美国儿童的超重与每个儿童每天大约 200 kcal 的能量摄入量平均增加有关。该模型还表明，可能存在儿童在不减肥的情况下摆脱肥胖的治疗窗口，特别是在不严重肥胖的男孩的高生长潜力时期。该模型量化了肥胖背后的能量过剩，并计算了实现儿童体重变化所需的干预幅度。政策制定者和临床医生现在拥有一种定量技术来了解儿童肥胖的流行并规划干预措施来控制它。
Clinicians and policy makers need the ability to predict quantitatively how childhood bodyweight will respond to obesity interventions. We developed and validated a mathematical model of childhood energy balance that accounts for healthy growth and development of obesity, and that makes quantitative predictions about weight-management interventions. The model was calibrated to reference body composition data in healthy children and validated by comparing model predictions with data other than those used to build the model. The model accurately simulated the changes in body composition and energy expenditure reported in reference data during healthy growth, and predicted increases in energy intake from ages 5–18 years of roughly 1200 kcal per day in boys and 900 kcal per day in girls. Development of childhood obesity necessitated a substantially greater excess energy intake than for development of adult obesity. Furthermore, excess energy intake in overweight and obese children calculated by the model greatly exceeded the typical energy balance calculated on the basis of growth charts. At the population level, the excess weight of US children in 2003–06 was associated with a mean increase in energy intake of roughly 200 kcal per day per child compared with similar children in 1976–80. The model also suggests that therapeutic windows when children can outgrow obesity without losing weight might exist, especially during periods of high growth potential in boys who are not severely obese. This model quantifies the energy excess underlying obesity and calculates the necessary intervention magnitude to achieve bodyweight change in children. Policy makers and clinicians now have a quantitative technique for understanding the childhood obesity epidemic and planning interventions to control it.
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改变肥胖的未来：科学，政策和行动。
影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Gortmaker, Steven L.;Swinburn, Boyd A.;Levy, David;Carter, Rob;Mabry, Patricia L.;Finegood, Diane T.;Huang, Terry;Marsh, Tim;Moodie, Marjory L.
通讯作者：
Moodie, Marjory L.
影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Hall, Kevin D.;Sacks, Gary;Chandramohan, Dhruva;Chow, Carson C.;Wang, Y. Claire;Gortmaker, Steven L.;Swinburn, Boyd A.
通讯作者：
Swinburn, Boyd A.
影响因子：
7.1
作者：
STALLINGS, VA;ARCHIBALD, EH;BELL, LE
通讯作者：
BELL, LE
DOI：
10.1249/mss.0b013e31823fb254
发表时间：
2012-05-01
期刊：
MEDICINE AND SCIENCE IN SPORTS AND EXERCISE
影响因子：
--
作者：
Gortmaker, Steven L.;Lee, Rebekka;Wang, Y. Claire
通讯作者：
Wang, Y. Claire
影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Swinburn, Boyd A.;Sacks, Gary;Gortmaker, Steven L.
通讯作者：
Gortmaker, Steven L.