Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change.
Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-021-22657-4
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发表时间：
2021-04-19
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Jennings E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Woolway RI;Sharma S;Weyhenmeyer GA;Debolskiy A;Golub M;Mercado-Bettín D;Perroud M;Stepanenko V;Tan Z;Grant L;Ladwig R;Mesman J;Moore TN;Shatwell T;Vanderkelen I;Austin JA;DeGasperi CL;Dokulil M;La Fuente S;Mackay EB;Schladow SG;Watanabe S;Marcé R;Pierson DC;Thiery W;Jennings E
驱动湖泊生命周期事件的最重要的物理特征之一是分层。人们已经知道，层化开始和破裂（物候学）时间的微妙变化具有重大的生态影响，主要是通过确定生物体的光、营养物、碳和氧的可用性。尽管它的生态重要性，历史和未来的全球变化分层物候是未知的。在这里，我们使用了一个湖泊气候模式合奏和长期观测数据，调查湖泊分层物候在整个北方半球从1901年到2099年的变化。在高温室气体排放情景下，到本世纪末，分层将提前开始22.0 ± 7.0天开始，延迟11.3 ± 4.7天结束。这一33.3 ± 11.7天的分层延长很可能会加速湖泊脱氧，从而影响湖泊沉积物的营养盐矿化和磷释放。生命周期事件的进一步错位，以及湖泊生态系统可能发生的不可逆转的变化，也是可能的。分层有相当大的影响，湖泊生态，但很少了解过去或未来的季节性变化。在这里，作者使用建模和经验数据来确定在1901-2099年之间，气候变化导致分层开始得更早，结束得更晚。
One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely. Stratification has a considerable influence on lake ecology, but there is little understanding of past or future changes in its seasonality. Here, the authors use modelling and empirical data to determine that between 1901–2099, climate change causes stratification to start earlier and end later.
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影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Heiskanen, Jouni J.;Mammarella, Ivan;Nordbo, Annika
通讯作者：
Nordbo, Annika
DOI：
10.3402/tellusa.v66.21510
发表时间：
2014-01-01
影响因子：
2
作者：
Choulga, Margarita;Kourzeneva, Ekaterina;Doganovsky, Arkady
通讯作者：
Doganovsky, Arkady
影响因子：
8.9
作者：
Hersbach, Hans;Bell, Bill;Thepaut, Jean-Noel
通讯作者：
Thepaut, Jean-Noel
影响因子：
12.8
作者：
Gray, Emma;Mackay, Eleanor B.;Jones, Ian D.
通讯作者：
Jones, Ian D.
影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Frieler, Katja;Lange, Stefan;Yamagata, Yoshiki
通讯作者：
Yamagata, Yoshiki