Understanding and Reducing False Alarms in Observational Fog Prediction.
Understanding and Reducing False Alarms in Observational Fog Prediction.
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DOI：
10.1007/s10546-018-0374-2
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Bosveld FC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Izett JG;van de Wiel BJH;Baas P;Bosveld FC
伴随雾事件而来的能见度降低给人类安全和航行带来了危险。然而，准确的雾预测仍然难以捉摸，数值方法往往无法捕捉雾形成的条件，而观测方法为了获得高预测命中率而具有高的虚警率。在这项工作中，利用卡博大气研究实验场5年的观测，进一步调查了如何使用Menut等人开发的用于诊断辐射雾事件的统计方法来减少虚假警报。(边界层气象150：277-297，)该方法评估了预测提前期为1-6小时，并实施了四种优化方案来调整预测以满足不同的需求，在置信度和风险之间进行了折衷。随着提前时间的减少，预测分数显著提高，命中率可能达到90%以上，而误警率仅为13%。总体而言，除了原始组合之外，还探索了另外31种预测变量组合(主要包括与边界层的湿度和静态稳定性有关的变量)。预测分数的微小变化表明，可以使用测量饱和度、湍流和近地表冷却的任何适当的变量组合。其余的虚警期是人工评估的，确定缺乏时空信息(如当地条件的时间演变和气团的平流历史)是该方法预测能力的最终限制因素。未来的观测研究建议研究雾的近地表演化和非局地非均质性在雾形成中的作用。
The reduction in visibility that accompanies fog events presents a hazard to human safety and navigation. However, accurate fog prediction remains elusive, with numerical methods often unable to capture the conditions of fog formation, and observational methods having high false-alarm rates in order to obtain high hit rates of prediction. In this work, 5 years of observations from the Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research are used to further investigate how false alarms may be reduced using the statistical method for diagnosing radiation-fog events from observations developed by Menut et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 150:277–297,). The method is assessed for forecast lead times of 1–6 h and implementing four optimization schemes to tune the prediction for different needs, compromising between confidence and risk. Prediction scores improve significantly with decreased lead time, with the possibility of achieving a hit rate of over 90% and a false-alarm rate of just 13%. In total, a further 31 combinations of predictive variables beyond the original combination are explored (including mostly, e.g., variables related to moisture and static stability of the boundary layer). Little change to the prediction scores indicates any appropriate combination of variables that measure saturation, turbulence, and near-surface cooling can be used. The remaining false-alarm periods are manually assessed, identifying the lack of spatio–temporal information (such as the temporal evolution of the local conditions and the advective history of the airmass) as the ultimate limiting factor in the methodology’s predictive capabilities. Future observational studies are recommended that investigate the near-surface evolution of fog and the role of non-local heterogeneity on fog formation.
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影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Bartok, Juraj;Bott, Andreas;Gera, Martin
通讯作者：
Gera, Martin
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Duynkerke, PG
通讯作者：
Duynkerke, PG
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Fabbian, Dustin;de Dear, Richard;Lellyett, Stephen
通讯作者：
Lellyett, Stephen
影响因子：
3
作者：
Gultepe, I.;Mueller, M. D.;Boybeyi, Z.
通讯作者：
Boybeyi, Z.
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Boers, R.;Baltink, H. Klein;Moerman, M.
通讯作者：
Moerman, M.