A Demonstration of a Simple Methodology of Flood Prediction for a Coastal City Under Threat of Sea Level Rise: The Case of Norfolk, VA, USA
A Demonstration of a Simple Methodology of Flood Prediction for a Coastal City Under Threat of Sea Level Rise: The Case of Norfolk, VA, USA
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受海平面上升威胁的沿海城市洪水预测的简单方法的演示：以美国弗吉尼亚州诺福克市为例
DOI：
10.1029/2022ef002786
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
T. Ezer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Ezer
由于海平面上升（SLR），世界各地的许多沿海城市都面临着洪水增加的风险，因此，这里为美国东海岸的一个城市，弗吉尼亚州诺福克，演示了一种简单的洪水预测方法。通过将1927-2021年观测到的每小时水位扩展到2100年之前的每小时估计值，估计未来洪水的概率。与大多数其他洪水预测方法不同，这里的方法不使用任何预先确定的极端事件的概率分布函数，而是对过去的数据进行随机抽样，代表潮汐和风暴潮。计算了3种不同洪水位和3种不同SLR方案的洪水概率，结果与更复杂的方法一致。在中低SLR预测下，发现了一个经验公式来估计洪水时间的下限，表明超过高潮（平均高水位，MHHW）的水位在20世纪60年代发生了0.3%的时间，在2021年增加到0.6%，预计到2080年将发生100%的时间。在中等SLR预测下，对年最高水位概率进行了1000次模拟，结果表明，到2050年，风暴潮可能达到MHHW以上的1.2 m，到2100年，MHHW以上的1.3 m;相比之下，诺福克在过去90年中的风暴潮只有一次达到1.6 m。本文所提出的方法可以推广到其他地区，并有助于规划风险城市的缓解和适应策略。
Many coastal cities around the world are at risk of increased flooding due to sea level rise (SLR), so here a simple flood prediction method is demonstrated for one city at risk, Norfolk, VA, on the U.S. East Coast. The probability of future flooding is estimated by extending observed hourly water level for 1927–2021 into hourly estimates until 2100. Unlike most other flood prediction methods, the approach here does not use any predetermined probability distribution function of extreme events, and instead a random sampling of past data represents tides and storm surges. The probability of flooding for 3 different flood levels and 3 different SLR projections are calculated, and the results are consistent with more sophisticated methods. Under intermediate‐low SLR projection an empirical formula is found to estimate the lower bound of flooding time, showing that water level that exceeds the high tide (Mean Higher High Water, MHHW) occurred ∼0.3% of the time in the 1960s, increased to ∼6% in 2021, and projected to occur 100% of the time by ∼2080. Under intermediate SLR projection, 1000 simulations of the probability of maximum annual water level were conducted, showing that storm surges may reach ∼2 m over MHHW by 2050 and ∼3 m over MHHW by 2100; in comparison, storm surges in Norfolk over the past 90 years reached 1.6 m only once. The method derived here could be adopted to other locations and help planning mitigations and adaptation strategies for cities at risk.
影响因子：
8.2
作者：
Garner, Andra J.;Kopp, Robert E.;Horton, Benjamin P.
通讯作者：
Horton, Benjamin P.