Modelling the potential for local management practices to offset climate change impacts on freshwater macroinvertebrate communities
Modelling the potential for local management practices to offset climate change impacts on freshwater macroinvertebrate communities
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模拟当地管理实践抵消气候变化对淡水大型无脊椎动物群落影响的潜力
DOI：
10.1111/fwb.14222
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发表时间：
2024
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Orr J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Orr J
对全球和地方人为压力之间相互作用的深入了解对于人类世的生态系统管理至关重要。在实验室或现场进行的操纵实验可用于建立有关压力源的生理和生态影响的知识，但预测全球压力源（如气候变化）的综合景观尺度效应，而土地利用变化等局部压力因素需要不同的方法。在这里，我们使用了基于水质和水文过程的整个河流集水区模型，并结合大型生物监测数据集来预测大型无脊椎动物群落在不同气候变化和土地利用变化情景下的响应。利用英国的泰晤士河作为一个模型系统，我们预测了水质的变化，（温度、流量、磷[P]、氮、溶解氧[DO]）和随后大型无脊椎动物群落的变化，单独和结合强化农业和减少磷污染（代表废水处理得到改善）我们的模型预测，与气候变化相关的水质变化可能不会影响总物种丰富度，但根据群落指数和分类群特异性反应，群落组成将转向更耐污染和更常见的分类群。我们还发现，气候变化对水质的负面影响（例如，P浓度增加，DO浓度降低）通过集水区积累，但影响P动态的当地土地利用实践可以改变这一趋势。此外，虽然强化农业情景预计对大型无脊椎动物群落的影响最小，（由于泰晤士河已经受到严重污染，这一结果可能与基线移动有关），我们发现，通过改善污水处理来减少磷污染，能够抵消气候变化对大型无脊椎动物群落的负面影响。我们的研究结果表明，使用基于过程的模型来研究大型无脊椎动物群落的网络，在景观尺度上相互作用的压力源可以为人类活动造成的全球变化的生态影响提供有益的见解，并进一步支持这样一种观点，即对当地压力源的管理有可能减轻气候变化对生态系统的某些影响。
A robust understanding of the interactions between global and local anthropogenic stressors is crucial for ecosystem management in the Anthropocene. Manipulative experiments in the laboratory or in the field can be used to build knowledge about the physiological and ecological effects of stressors, but predicting the combined landscape‐scale effects of global stressors such as climate change, and local stressors such as land‐use change requires a different approach.Here we used water quality and hydrology process‐based models of entire river catchments in combination with a large biomonitoring dataset to predict the responses of macroinvertebrate communities under different climate change and land‐use change scenarios. Using the River Thames in the U.K. as a model system, we predicted changes in water quality (temperature, flow, phosphorus [P], nitrogen, dissolved oxygen [DO]) and subsequent changes in macroinvertebrate communities for two climate change scenarios, individually and in combination with intensified agriculture and reduced P pollution (representing improved wastewater treatment).Our models predicted that water‐quality changes associated with climate change may not influence total species richness, but that community composition will shift towards more pollution‐tolerant and common taxa based on responses of community indices and taxon‐specific responses. We also found that the negative impacts of climate change on water quality (e.g., increased P concentration, decreased DO concentration) accumulate through the catchment, but that local land‐use practices influencing P dynamics can modify this trend. Furthermore, although the intensified agriculture scenario was predicted to have minimal impacts on macroinvertebrate communities (a result potentially related to shifting baselines as the Thames is already heavily polluted), we found that reduced P pollution resulting from improved wastewater treatment was able to mostly offset the negative impacts of climate change on macroinvertebrate communities.Our results demonstrate that using process‐based models to study networks of interacting stressors at a landscape scale can provide useful insights into the ecological impacts of anthropogenic global change, and adds support to the idea that management of local stressors has the potential to mitigate some of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems.
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影响因子：
--
作者：
S. Sabater;A. Freixa;Laura Jiménez;J. López;G. Pace;C. Pascoal;N. Perujo;D. Craven;Juan David González‐Trujillo
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DOI：
--
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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作者：
S. Guareschi;A. Laini;J. England;T. Johns;M. Winter;P. Wood
通讯作者：
P. Wood
影响因子：
6.9
作者：
Chadd, Richard P.;England, Judy A.;Wood, Paul J.
通讯作者：
Wood, Paul J.
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影响因子：
2.7
作者：
P. Whitehead;A. Wade;D. Butterfield
通讯作者：
D. Butterfield
景观尺度下农作物时空排列的模拟场景
DOI：
10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.04.006
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
Environ. Model. Softw.
影响因子：
--
作者：
M. Castellazzi;J. Matthews;F. Angevin;C. Sausse;G. A. Wood;P. Burgess;I. Brown;K. F. Conrad;J. Perry
通讯作者：
J. Perry