Decadal change in factors affecting winter precipitation over eastern China
Decadal change in factors affecting winter precipitation over eastern China
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中国东部冬季降水影响因素的年代际变化
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-015-2572-7
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Sun Jianqi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ao Juan;Sun Jianqi
利用经验正交函数法分析了中国东部冬季降水变率的时空分布特征。结果表明，该地区冬季降水变率的主要模态在研究期间呈均匀变化，在20世纪80年代末前后有明显的年代际变化。影响中国东部冬季降水变率的因子在不同年代际变化。在20世纪80年代末以前，欧亚(EU)模和北太平洋涛动(NPO)模是两个主要的大气因子。20世纪80年代末以后，欧盟模式的影响依然存在。然而，非营利组织的影响显著减弱，新的罗斯比波(RW)模式成为关键因素。进一步的观测和数值模拟分析表明，热带西太平洋对流活动在20世纪80年代末前后明显增强，对流促进了RW模的发展，并最终导致了80年代末以后中国东部冬季降水异常。结果表明，冬季降水的预报应考虑不同的年代际背景，否则，在某些年代际周期内，变化的因素可能会导致预报失败。
The temporal and spatial distributions of winter precipitation variability over eastern China were analyzed on the basis of the empirical orthogonal function method. The results showed that the primary mode of winter precipitation variability over this area presented a homogeneous change during the study period, with a significant decadal change around the late 1980s. The factors that influenced winter precipitation variability over eastern China changed over different interdecadal periods. Before the late 1980s, the Eurasian (EU) mode and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) mode were the two major atmospheric factors. After the late 1980s, the influence of the EU mode remained. However, the impact of the NPO weakened significantly, and a new Rossby Wave (RW) pattern became a key factor. Further analyses of both observations and numerical simulations indicated that the convective activity over the western tropical Pacific strengthened significantly around the late 1980s; the convection encouraged the RW mode and ultimately contributed to the anomalous winter precipitation over eastern China after the late 1980s. The results imply that the prediction of winter precipitation should consider different interdecadal backgrounds; otherwise, the changing factors could result in failure of the prediction over some decadal periods.
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