Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America.
Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-017-06869-7
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发表时间：
2017-07-26
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Stott L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chikamoto Y;Timmermann A;Widlansky MJ;Balmaseda MA;Stott L
过去北美的严重干旱导致了大规模的水资源短缺和野火频率的增加。该地区多年干旱的触发源包括随机发生的大气阻塞模式、海洋对大气环流的影响以及气候对人为辐射强迫的反应。这些来源结合在一起，导致难以在多年时间尺度上预测这种干旱的发生和持续时间。在这里，我们提出了一个新的多年动态预测系统的结果，该系统在预测野火概率和干旱10-23和10-45个月的提前期方面表现出高度的技能，远远超出了目前北美西南部的季节性预测活动。使用一个国家的最先进的地球系统模式沿着与三维海洋数据同化和规定的外部辐射强迫，该系统模拟观测到的降水，土壤水，野火概率的低频变化与观测记录和再分析数据密切一致。多年可预报性的基本来源可以追溯到大西洋/太平洋海面温度梯度、外部辐射强迫和土壤低通滤波特性的变化。
Past severe droughts over North America have led to massive water shortages and increases in wildfire frequency. Triggering sources for multi-year droughts in this region include randomly occurring atmospheric blocking patterns, ocean impacts on atmospheric circulation, and climate’s response to anthropogenic radiative forcings. A combination of these sources translates into a difficulty to predict the onset and length of such droughts on multi-year timescales. Here we present results from a new multi-year dynamical prediction system that exhibits a high degree of skill in forecasting wildfire probabilities and drought for 10–23 and 10–45 months lead time, which extends far beyond the current seasonal prediction activities for southwestern North America. Using a state-of-the-art earth system model along with 3-dimensional ocean data assimilation and by prescribing the external radiative forcings, this system simulates the observed low-frequency variability of precipitation, soil water, and wildfire probabilities in close agreement with observational records and reanalysis data. The underlying source of multi-year predictability can be traced back to variations of the Atlantic/Pacific sea surface temperature gradient, external radiative forcings, and the low-pass filtering characteristics of soils.
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
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