Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Future Bioretention Performance Across the Contiguous United States
Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Future Bioretention Performance Across the Contiguous United States
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评估气候变化对美国本土未来生物滞留性能的影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128771
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Khojandi, Anahita
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Weathers, Matthew;Hathaway, Jon M.;Andrew Tirpak, R.;Khojandi, Anahita
鉴于气候变化引起的降水模式的变化，社区正在寻求通过绿色雨水基础设施（GSI）等干预措施来建立城市排水系统的弹性。生物滞留电池是最常用的GSI形式之一，因为它们具有降低峰值排放、保留径流和过滤污染物的能力。然而，由于与历史降水频率和强度模式的偏差，它们在未来可能面临功能下降的风险，而这些对它们的设计至关重要。此外，未来功能的变化可能因区域而异，因为未来气候变化的幅度将在全球范围内有所不同。为了探索对未来生物保持功能的影响范围，我们对美国相邻地区17个地点的10个区域气候模型进行了评估，利用概率方法提供了最广泛的潜在未来结果，以捕捉气候变化的不确定性。生物保留细胞使用美国环保署的雨水管理模型（SWMM）进行建模，以比较在一系列气候变化预测下现有和未来的性能。预计所有17个地点的年降雨量中位数和第99个百分点降雨事件深度和强度将增加，而11个地点的前干期（即连续降雨事件之间的时间）将增加。相应地，在未来情景下，所有17个地点的生物滞留细胞水文性能都有所下降：相对于当前气候条件下的性能，所有17个地点的年入渗量下降了4.0%至24.0%，而15个地点的溢流量增加了0.4至19.6%。结果表明，美国南部的生物保留细胞在未来功能降低的风险很大，而中西部和东北部的风险中等。在未来气候情景下，西北/西部的生物滞留细胞表现最好；也就是说，它们在未来表现出与现在相似的功能。研究结果表明，大多数（如果不是全部的话）美国各地的生物保持细胞都需要进行一定程度的修饰，以在未来的条件下保持现有的功能。
In light of shifting precipitation patterns induced by climate change, communities are seeking to build resiliency in urban drainage systems through interventions such as green stormwater infrastructure (GSI). Bioretention cells are one of the most commonly implemented forms of GSI for their ability to reduce peak discharge, retain runoff, and filter pollutants. However, they may be at risk of reduced function in the future due to deviations from historic precipitation frequency and intensity patterns which are essential to their design. Further, changes in future function are likely to vary regionally as the magnitude of future climate changes will differ across the globe. To explore the range of impacts to future bioretention function, an ensemble of 10 regional climate models at 17 locations across the contiguous United States were evaluated to provide the widest range of potential future outcomes using a probabilistic approach to capture the uncertain nature of climate change. Bioretention cells were modeled using USEPA’s Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) to compare existing and future performance under a range of climate change projections. Median annual rainfall and 99th percentile rainfall event depths and intensities were projected to increase across all 17 locations while antecedent dry period (i.e., the time between consecutive rain events) was projected to increase for 11 locations. Correspondingly, bioretention cell hydrologic performance decreased across all 17 locations under future scenarios: relative to performance under current climate conditions, annual volumes of infiltration decreased between 4.0 and 24.0% across all 17 locations while overflow increased between 0.4 and 19.6% for 15 locations. Results suggest that bioretention cells in the southern United States are at significant risk of reduced function in the future while those in the Midwest and Northeast are at moderate risk. Bioretention cells in the Northwest/West performed the best under future climate scenarios; that is, they showed similar function in the future to that of the present. Findings demonstrate that most, if not all, bioretention cells across the contiguous United States will require some degree of modification to maintain existing function under future conditions.
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发表时间：
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