Temperature changes in the United States
Temperature changes in the United States
复制标题
美国气温变化
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Wehner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Vose;D. Easterling;K. Kunkel;M. Wehner
1. 1986-2016年期间，美国本土的年平均气温相对于1901-1960年增加了1.2°F（0.7°C），基于1895-2016年期间的线性回归，增加了1.8°F（1.0°C）（非常高的置信度）。地面和卫星数据对1979年以来快速变暖的描述是一致的（高置信度）。古温度证据表明，最近几十年是过去1,500年中最热的（中等置信度）。2.美国本土的极端气温发生了显著变化。自20世纪初以来，寒潮的频率有所下降，而热浪的频率自20世纪60年代中期以来有所增加（沙尘暴仍然是极端高温的高峰期）。近二十年来创下的高温纪录数量远远超过低温纪录数量。(Very高置信度）3.预计美国邻近地区的年平均气温将上升（非常高的置信度）。在所有排放情景中，预计未来几十年将增加约2.5°F（1.4°C），这意味着最近创纪录的年份在不久的将来可能是“常见的”（高置信度）。预计到世纪末，气温将大幅上升：在较低排放情景（RCP 4.5）中为2.8°-7.3 ° F（1.6°-4.1 ° C），在较高排放情景（RCP 8.5）中为5.8°-11.9 ° F（3.2°-6.6 ° C）（高置信度）。4.预计美国周边地区的极端气温将比平均气温上升得更多。预计极寒日和极暖日的气温都将上升。预计寒潮将变得不那么强烈，而热浪将变得更加强烈。低于冰点的天数预计将减少，而高于90°F的天数将增加。(Very高置信度）CSSR 5 OD：最终放行第6章以最终副本为准2017年6月28日267 6.美国气温变化1
1. Average annual temperature over the contiguous United States has increased by 1.2°F (0.7°C) for the period 1986–2016 relative to 1901–1960 and by 1.8°F (1.0°C) based on a linear regression for the period 1895–2016 (very high confidence). Surface and satellite data are consistent in their depiction of rapid warming since 1979 (high confidence). Paleo-temperature evidence shows that recent decades are the warmest of the past 1,500 years (medium confidence). 2. There have been marked changes in temperature extremes across the contiguous United States. The frequency of cold waves has decreased since the early 1900s, and the frequency of heat waves has increased since the mid-1960s (the Dust Bowl remains the peak period for extreme heat). The number of high temperature records set in the past two decades far exceeds the number of low temperature records. (Very high confidence) 3. Average annual temperature over the contiguous United States is projected to rise (very high confidence). Increases of about 2.5°F (1.4°C) are projected for the next few decades in all emission scenarios, implying recent record-setting years may be “common” in the near future (high confidence). Much larger rises are projected by late century: 2.8°–7.3°F (1.6°–4.1°C) in a lower emissions scenario (RCP4.5) and 5.8°–11.9°F (3.2°–6.6°C) in a higher emissions scenario (RCP8.5) (high confidence). 4. Extreme temperatures in the contiguous United States are projected to increase even more than average temperatures. The temperatures of extremely cold days and extremely warm days are both expected to increase. Cold waves are projected to become less intense while heat waves will become more intense. The number of days below freezing is projected to decline while the number above 90°F will rise. (Very high confidence) CSSR 5OD: FINAL CLEARANCE Chapter 6 Subject to Final Copyedit 28 June 2017 267 6. Temperature Changes in the United States 1
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Sillmann, J.;Kharin, V. V.;Bronaugh, D.
通讯作者：
Bronaugh, D.