The success of the horse-chestnut leaf-miner, Cameraria ohridella, in the UK revealed with hypothesis-led citizen science.
The success of the horse-chestnut leaf-miner, Cameraria ohridella, in the UK revealed with hypothesis-led citizen science.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0086226
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Evans DM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pocock MJ;Evans DM
公民科学是一种越来越受欢迎的从事研究的方式，同时也让人们与科学接触。然而，公民科学在环境科学中最强调的是长期监测。在这里，我们展示了以短期假说为主导的公民科学所提供的机会。2010年，我们开展了“康克树木科学”项目，在英国，超过3500人提供了全国范围内一种正在迅速扩大活动范围的昆虫(马栗叶潜蛾，Cameraria ohridella)的数据。我们提出了两个假说，发现(1)对七叶树叶片的伤害程度和(2)对七叶树幼虫寄生寄生蜂的攻击程度都是在ohridella出现时间最长的地方最大。具体地说，在ohridella存在的头三年中，叶片受害迅速上升，此后仅略有上升，而当ohridella出现在某个地点的时间从3年增加到6年时，估计的寄生率(真实寄生率的指数)从1.6%增加到5.9%。我们认为，这一增长是由于当地多面手寄生蜂的招募，而不是像欧洲其他地方似乎发生的那样，适应或追踪更专门的寄生蜂。参与者收集的大多数数据都是准确的，但参与者的寄生蜂计数与专家的计数显示出较低的一致性。我们对这种偏见进行了统计建模，并通过我们的分析传播了这种偏见。经偏差校正后的寄生估计值低于原始数据，但趋势在大小和意义上相似。通过对数据质量进行适当的检查，并在必要时从统计上纠正偏差，假设主导的公民科学可能成为在大空间范围内开展科学研究，同时让许多人参与科学的潜在强大工具。
Citizen science is an increasingly popular way of undertaking research and simultaneously engaging people with science. However, most emphasis of citizen science in environmental science is on long-term monitoring. Here, we demonstrate the opportunities provided by short-term hypothesis-led citizen science. In 2010, we ran the ‘Conker Tree Science’ project, in which over 3500 people in Great Britain provided data at a national scale of an insect (horse-chestnut leaf-mining moth, Cameraria ohridella) undergoing rapid range-expansion. We addressed two hypotheses, and found that (1) the levels of damage caused to leaves of the horse-chestnut tree, Aesculus hippocastanum, and (2) the level of attack by parasitoids of C. ohridella larvae were both greatest where C. ohridella had been present the longest. Specifically there was a rapid rise in leaf damage during the first three years that C. ohridella was present and only a slight rise thereafter, while estimated rates of parasitism (an index of true rates of parasitism) increased from 1.6 to 5.9% when the time C. ohridella had been present in a location increased from 3 to 6 years. We suggest that this increase is due to recruitment of native generalist parasitoids, rather than the adaptation or host-tracking of more specialized parasitoids, as appears to have occurred elsewhere in Europe. Most data collected by participants were accurate, but the counts of parasitoids from participants showed lower concordance with the counts from experts. We statistically modeled this bias and propagated this through our analyses. Bias-corrected estimates of parasitism were lower than those from the raw data, but the trends were similar in magnitude and significance. With appropriate checks for data quality, and statistically correcting for biases where necessary, hypothesis-led citizen science is a potentially powerful tool for carrying out scientific research across large spatial scales while simultaneously engaging many people with science.
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