The Popularity of Authoritarian Leaders: A Cross-National Investigation
The Popularity of Authoritarian Leaders: A Cross-National Investigation
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威权领导人的受欢迎程度：一项跨国调查
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Treisman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Guriev;D. Treisman
摘要：专制国家的公民对他们的领导人有什么感觉？虽然有些独裁者通过恐怖统治，但其他独裁者似乎真的很受欢迎。作者利用盖洛普世界民意调查2006-2016年140多个国家的调查小组，表明政治认可的驱动因素在不同的政权类型中有所不同。虽然在公开的独裁统治下，残酷的镇压可能会导致受访者伪造自己的偏好，但在温和的信息独裁统治下，更大的镇压实际上预示着更低的支持率。在专制国家和民主国家一样，经济表现很重要，公民的经济感知虽然不完全准确，但会跟踪客观指标。独裁者也会从更大的公共安全感中受益，但作者发现民主国家没有这种效果。对媒体和互联网的秘密审查与独裁政权的更高支持率有关，特别是在信息方面，但当公民意识到审查时，支持率就会下降。在信息专制国家，如果领导人更替，行政选举会引发收视率飙升，但与民主国家不同，连任的独裁者几乎没有蜜月期。
abstract:How do citizens in authoritarian states feel about their leaders? While some dictators rule through terror, others seem genuinely popular. Using the Gallup World Poll's panel of more than one hundred-forty countries in 2006–2016, the authors show that the drivers of political approval differ across regime types. Although brutal repression in overt dictatorships could cause respondents to falsify their preferences, in milder informational autocracies, greater repression actually predicts lower approval. In autocracies as in democracies, economic performance matters and citizens' economic perceptions, while not perfectly accurate, track objective indicators. Dictators also benefit from greater perceived public safety, but the authors find no such effect in democracies. Covert censorship of the media and the Internet is associated with higher approval in autocracies—in particular, in informational ones—but ratings fall when citizens recognize censorship. In informational autocracies, executive elections trigger a ratings surge if there is leader turnover, but, unlike in democracies, reelected autocrats enjoy little honeymoon.
影响因子：
8.4
作者：
Deaton, Angus
通讯作者：
Deaton, Angus