Looking back to move forward on model validation: insights from a global model of agricultural land use
Looking back to move forward on model validation: insights from a global model of agricultural land use
复制标题
回顾并推进模型验证：全球农业土地利用模型的见解
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034024
复制
发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
T. Hertel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
U. Baldos;T. Hertel
在关于气候变化影响和减缓政策的辩论中，全球农业模型正变得不可或缺。因此，验证这些模型并确定需要改进的关键领域变得越来越重要。在这封信中，我们说明了机会和挑战，在进行这种模型验证，使用全球农业的SIMPLE模型。我们回顾了1961-2006年的长期历史时期，使用几个关键的历史驱动因素-人口，收入和全要素生产率-我们发现SIMPLE能够准确地再现全球范围内耕地利用，作物价格，作物产量和平均作物产量的历史变化。同样重要的是，我们调查了许多农业模型中嵌入的特定假设如何可能影响这些结果。我们发现，那些主要是生物农药的全球模型，从而忽略了需求和供应的价格反应可能低估了作物产量的变化，而未能捕捉到耕地使用和作物价格的变化。同样，纳入经济反应的全球模型，但这样做的基础上有限的时间序列估计这些反应，可能低估土地使用的变化和高估价格的变化。
Global agricultural models are becoming indispensable in the debate over climate change impacts and mitigation policies. Therefore, it is becoming increasingly important to validate these models and identify critical areas for improvement. In this letter, we illustrate both the opportunities and the challenges in undertaking such model validation, using the SIMPLE model of global agriculture. We look back at the long run historical period 1961–2006 and, using a few key historical drivers—population, incomes and total factor productivity—we find that SIMPLE is able to accurately reproduce historical changes in cropland use, crop price, crop production and average crop yields at the global scale. Equally important is our investigation into how the specific assumptions embedded in many agricultural models will likely influence these results. We find that those global models which are largely biophysical—thereby ignoring the price responsiveness of demand and supply—are likely to understate changes in crop production, while failing to capture the changes in cropland use and crop price. Likewise, global models which incorporate economic responses, but do so based on limited time series estimates of these responses, are likely to understate land use change and overstate price changes.
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2010-08
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
G. Nelson;M. Rosegrant;J. Koo;R. Robertson;T. Sulser;T. Zhu;C. Ringler;A. Palazzo;S. Msangi;M. Batka;M. Magalhaes;R. Valmonte-Santos;M. Ewing;David R. Lee
通讯作者：
G. Nelson;M. Rosegrant;J. Koo;R. Robertson;T. Sulser;T. Zhu;C. Ringler;A. Palazzo;S. Msangi;M. Batka;M. Magalhaes;R. Valmonte-Santos;M. Ewing;David R. Lee