Land-Use/Land-Cover Change from Socio-Economic Drivers and Their Impact on Biodiversity in Nan Province, Thailand.
Land-Use/Land-Cover Change from Socio-Economic Drivers and Their Impact on Biodiversity in Nan Province, Thailand.
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DOI：
10.3390/su11030649
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发表时间：
2019-01-26
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Johnston JM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Trisurat Y;Shirakawa H;Johnston JM
自2000年以来，由于经济转型，森林砍伐率在泰国稳步下降。但位于泰国北方的南府并没有发生这些变化。由于对森林产品的高需求和农业综合企业的增加，预计森林砍伐将继续下去。本文的目标是：（1）根据趋势、基于市场和保护的情景预测该省的土地利用变化;（2）量化生物多样性;（3）确定未来森林砍伐风险最大的生物多样性热点。本研究采用动态土地利用变化模型（Dyna-CLUE）分配总的土地需求为三种情况下，采用FRAGSTATS确定土地利用变化的空间格局。此外，InVEST全球生物多样性评估模型框架被用来估计生物多样性，表示为相对于原始参考条件下的丰度的剩余平均物种丰度。森林砍伐的风险和MSA值相结合，以确定整个景观的生物多样性热点风险最大。结果显示，到2030年，该省的大部分森林覆盖面积将保留在西部和东部，这些地区崎岖不平，不易进入，以及保护区。在2030年的趋势、基于市场和保护情景下，MSA值预计将从2009年的0.41分别降至0.29、0.35和0.40。此外，低、中、高生物多样性区分别占全省的46%、49%和6%。保护区大大有助于维持森林覆盖率和增加生物多样性。保护剩余植被和维持生物多样性的重要措施包括在有砍伐森林危险的地区巡逻，减少原始森林地区的道路扩建，以及促进农民恢复退化生态系统的奖励计划。
The rate of deforestation declined steadily in Thailand since the year 2000 due to economic transformation away from forestry. However, these changes did not occur in Nan Province located in northern Thailand. Deforestation is expected to continue due to high demand for forest products and increased agribusiness. The objectives of this paper are (1) to predict land-use change in the province based on trends, market-based and conservation scenarios, (2) to quantify biodiversity, and (3) to identify biodiversity hotspots at greatest risk for future deforestation. This study used a dynamic land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) to allocate aggregated land demand for three scenarios and employed FRAGSTATS to determine the spatial pattern of land-use change. In addition, the InVEST Global Biodiversity Assessment Model framework was used to estimate biodiversity expressed as the remaining mean species abundance (MSA) relative to their abundance in the pristine reference condition. Risk of deforestation and the MSA values were combined to determine biodiversity hotspots across the landscape at greatest risk. The results revealed that most of the forest cover in 2030 would remain in the west and east of the province, which are rugged and not easily accessible, as well as in protected areas. MSA values are predicted to decrease from 0.41 in 2009 to 0.29, 0.35, and 0.40, respectively, under the trends, market-based and conservation scenarios in 2030. In addition, the low, medium, and high biodiversity zones cover 46, 49 and 6% of Nan Province. Protected areas substantially contribute to maintaining forest cover and greater biodiversity. Important measures to protect remaining cover and maintain biodiversity include patrolling at-risk deforestation areas, reduction of road expansion in pristine forest areas, and promotion of incentive schemes for farmers to rehabilitate degraded ecosystems.
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