Attribution analysis of high precipitation events in summer in England and Wales over the last decade
Attribution analysis of high precipitation events in summer in England and Wales over the last decade
复制标题
近10年英格兰和威尔士夏季强降水事件的归因分析
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-014-1095-2
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Otto F
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Otto F
关于极端事件的公开辩论中的一个关键问题日益成为该事件是否以及在多大程度上是由人为变暖引起的。在本研究中，我们使用英格兰和威尔士的极端夏季降水事件作为概率事件归因的示例来研究这个问题，在weather@home.net项目中使用非常大的区域气候模型（RCM）模拟集合。这使我们能够分析英格兰和威尔士地区高降水事件的统计数据，该地区拥有高质量的降水观测数据集。根据观测结果验证模型模拟显示了 5 天降水量分布的可信形状，因此对结果有信心。虽然由于模拟框架中的人为气候变化，七月极端降水事件的风险至少增加了一倍，但在其他两个夏季月份中没有检测到重大变化。因此，这项研究强调了复杂天气事件的概率事件归因的挑战，并确定需要进一步分解导致事件发生的大气特征以进行定量归因分析。
The crucial question in the public debate of extreme events is increasingly whether and to what extent the event has been caused by anthropogenic warming. In this study we investigate this question using extreme summer precipitation events in England and Wales as an example for probabilistic event attribution using very large ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations within the weather@home.net project. This allows us to analyse the statistics of high precipitation events in England and Wales, a region with a high quality precipitation observational dataset. Validating the model simulations against observations shows a credible shape of the distribution of 5-day precipitation, and thus confidence in the results. While the risk of extreme July precipitation events has at least doubled due to anthropogenic climate change in the modelling framework, no significant changes can be detected for the other two summer months. This study thus highlights the challenges of probabilistic event attribution of complex weather events and identifies the need to further decompose atmospheric features responsible for an event to occur for quantitative attribution analysis.
大陆尺度温度预测的不确定性
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
P. Stott;J. Kettleborough;M. Allen
通讯作者：
M. Allen