Statistical emulation of climate model projections based on precomputed GCM runs
Statistical emulation of climate model projections based on precomputed GCM runs
复制标题
基于预先计算的 GCM 运行的气候模型预测的统计仿真
DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-13-00099.1
复制
发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Elisabeth J. Moyer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Castruccio;David McInerney;Michael L. Stein;Feifei Liu Crouch;R. Jacob;Elisabeth J. Moyer
AbstractThe作者描述了一种新的方法，用于模拟一个完全耦合的气候模式的输出任意强迫的情况下，是基于一个小的预先计算的运行模式。温度和降水被表示为简单的函数，过去的大气CO2浓度的轨迹，和一个统计模型是适合使用一组有限的训练运行。该方法被证明是一个有用的和计算效率高的模式缩放的替代方案，并捕捉在瞬态气候固有的气候异常的空间模式的非线性演化。这种方法在所有情况下都能很好地进行模式缩放，而且在许多情况下要好得多;它不需要计算;而且，一旦统计模型适合，它就能立即有效地产生模拟的气候输出。因此，它可广泛应用于气候影响评估和其他需要快速气候预测的政策分析。
AbstractThe authors describe a new approach for emulating the output of a fully coupled climate model under arbitrary forcing scenarios that is based on a small set of precomputed runs from the model. Temperature and precipitation are expressed as simple functions of the past trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and a statistical model is fit using a limited set of training runs. The approach is demonstrated to be a useful and computationally efficient alternative to pattern scaling and captures the nonlinear evolution of spatial patterns of climate anomalies inherent in transient climates. The approach does as well as pattern scaling in all circumstances and substantially better in many; it is not computationally demanding; and, once the statistical model is fit, it produces emulated climate output effectively instantaneously. It may therefore find wide application in climate impacts assessments and other policy analyses requiring rapid climate projections.
DOI：
10.1002/9780470685853
发表时间：
1994
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
L. Biegler;G. Biros;O. Ghattas;M. Heinkenschloss;D. Keyes;B. Mallick;Y. Marzouk;L. Tenorio;B. V. B. Waanders-B.-V.-B.-Waanders-1863062;K. Willcox
通讯作者：
L. Biegler;G. Biros;O. Ghattas;M. Heinkenschloss;D. Keyes;B. Mallick;Y. Marzouk;L. Tenorio;B. V. B. Waanders-B.-V.-B.-Waanders-1863062;K. Willcox
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Andrews, Timothy;Forster, Piers M.
通讯作者：
Forster, Piers M.