The impact of climate change on U. K. river flows: A preliminary comparison of two generations of probabilistic climate projections
The impact of climate change on U. K. river flows: A preliminary comparison of two generations of probabilistic climate projections
复制标题
气候变化对英国河流流量的影响：两代概率气候预测的初步比较
DOI：
10.1002/hyp.13644
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
S. Allen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Kay;G. Watts;S. Wells;S. Allen
气候变化对未来河流流量的影响越来越令人担忧。通常，影响是通过用气候模型集合数据驱动水文模型来模拟的。英国《2009年气候预测》(UKCP09)提供了概率预测，使气候变化下的决策能够采用基于风险的方法。最近，发布了一个更新--UKCP18--因此需要关于影响可能有何不同的信息。来自UKCP18和UKCP09的概率预测在这里被应用于英格兰10个流域的基于集水区的水文模型的改变因子方法。使用UKCP09和UKCP18的A1B排放情景以及UCKP18的RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景，对本世纪50年代的中值、平均、高和低流量的变化进行了预测。结果表明，在所有径流措施的所有流域中，UKCP18下的变化中央估计值与UKCP09(A1B排放)下的变化中心估计值相似。然而，UKCP18的概率不确定度范围在所有情况下都大于UKCP09，尽管UKCP18的集合大小小于UKCP09。尽管使用UKCP18 RCP4.5、RCP8.5和A1B排放对变化的中央估计值之间存在差异，但不确定范围有相当大的重叠。结果表明，现有的水文影响评估仍然具有相关性，尽管有必要使用最新的预测来评估敏感的决定。这项分析将有助于为基于UKCP09的当前指南的用户提供建议，并有助于决定使用UKCP18对进一步的水文影响工作进行优先排序，这也应该适用于UKCP18的其他产品，如12公里区域数据。
The impacts of climate change on future river flows are a growing concern. Typically, impacts are simulated by driving hydrological models with climate model ensemble data. The U.K. Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) provided probabilistic projections, enabling a risk‐based approach to decision‐making under climate change. Recently, an update was released—UKCP18—so there is a need for information on how impacts may differ. The probabilistic projections from UKCP18 and UKCP09 are here applied using the change factor method with catchment‐based hydrological modelling for 10 catchments across England. Projections of changes in median, mean, high, and low flows are made for the 2050s, using the A1B emissions scenario from UKCP09 and UKCP18 as well as the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios from UCKP18. The results show that, in all catchments for all flow measures, the central estimate of change under UKCP18 is similar to that from UKCP09 (A1B emissions). However, the probabilistic uncertainty ranges from UKCP18 are, in all cases, greater than from UKCP09, despite UKCP18 having a smaller ensemble size than UKCP09. Although there are differences between the central estimates of change using UKCP18 RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and A1B emissions, there is considerable overlap in the uncertainty ranges. The results suggest that existing assessments of hydrological impacts remain relevant, though it will be necessary to evaluate sensitive decisions using the latest projections. The analysis will aid development of advice to users of current guidance based on UKCP09 and help make decisions about the prioritization of further hydrological impacts work using UKCP18, which should also apply other products from UKCP18 like the 12‐km regional data.
蒸发的水文学视角：英国的历史趋势和未来预测
影响因子：
2.8
作者：
Reynard N
通讯作者：
Reynard N
全国范围低流量频率分析：历史趋势和未来潜在变化
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Kay A
通讯作者：
Kay A
影响因子：
8.9
作者：
Cloke, Hannah L.;Wetterhall, Fredrik;Pappenberger, Florian
通讯作者：
Pappenberger, Florian