Trust and compliance to public health policies in times of COVID-19.

Trust and compliance to public health policies in times of COVID-19.
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DOI:
10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104316
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发表时间:
2020-12
影响因子:
9.8
通讯作者:
Aminjonov U
Aminjonov U
中科院分区:
经济学1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Bargain O;Aminjonov U

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在大流行病面前,信任退化对集体生存构成威胁。2020年3月全面封锁期间,欧洲的人员流动性下降。在政治信任度较高的欧洲地区,这种流动性下降幅度更大。政策紧缩的影响在高信任度地区也更为明显。信任对流动性的影响最终转化为不同的死亡率增长率。虽然一国内部信任和凝聚力的下降往往会产生巨大的社会经济影响,但当集体生存需要遵守时,它们也会产生严重后果。我们在2019冠状病毒病危机的背景下说明了这一点。世界各地的政策反应旨在减少社会互动并限制传染。我们利用欧洲区域一级的人口流动性和政治信任数据,研究了对这些遏制政策的遵守是否取决于危机前对政策制定者的信任程度。在封锁公告前后使用双差方法,我们发现高信任区域比低信任区域更显著地降低了与非必要活动相关的流动性。我们还利用国家和时间在待遇上的差异,利用国家政策的日常严格性。紧缩政策在减少流动性方面的效率随着信任的增加而显著提高。信任效应是非线性的,并随着严格程度的增加而增加。我们评估了信任对流动性的影响如何潜在地转化为死亡率增长率。
Degraded trust presents a risk for collective survival in the face of a pandemic. Human mobility decreases in Europe during generalized lockdowns in March 2020. This mobility reduction is larger in European regions with higher levels of political trust. The effect of policy stringency is also more pronounced in high-trust regions. The trust effect on mobility eventually translates in differential mortality growth rates. While degraded trust and cohesion within a country are often shown to have large socio-economic impacts, they can also have dramatic consequences when compliance is required for collective survival. We illustrate this point in the context of the COVID-19 crisis. Policy responses all over the world aim to reduce social interaction and limit contagion. Using data on human mobility and political trust at regional level in Europe, we examine whether the compliance to these containment policies depends on the level of trust in policy makers prior to the crisis. Using a double difference approach around the time of lockdown announcements, we find that high-trust regions decrease their mobility related to non-necessary activities significantly more than low-trust regions. We also exploit country and time variation in treatment using the daily strictness of national policies. The efficiency of policy stringency in terms of mobility reduction significantly increases with trust. The trust effect is nonlinear and increases with the degree of stringency. We assess how the impact of trust on mobility potentially translates in terms of mortality growth rate.
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