Variability of Water Vapor in the Tropical Middle Atmosphere Observed From Satellites and Interpreted Using SD‐WACCM Simulations

Variability of Water Vapor in the Tropical Middle Atmosphere Observed From Satellites and Interpreted Using SD‐WACCM Simulations
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从卫星观测到的热带中层大气中水蒸气的变化并使用 SD–WACCM 模拟进行解释

DOI:
10.1029/2022jd036714
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发表时间:
2022
期刊:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
Mlynczak, Martin
Mlynczak, Martin
中科院分区:
--
文献类型:
--
作者:
Yu, Wandi;Garcia, Rolando;Yue, Jia;Russell, James;Mlynczak, Martin

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中层大气中的水蒸气在全球变暖、臭氧消耗以及极地平流层和中间层云的形成中起着至关重要的作用。研究表明,用全大气群落气候模式(SD - WACCM)的特定动力学版本模拟的热带中层大气水汽与合并卫星数据集中观测到的变化是一致的,该数据集涵盖1993-2020年期间。与以往的工作一致,我们在观测和模拟中都没有发现平流层的显著趋势;在中间层,我们发现每十年0.1 ppmv的长期趋势,但只是在观测中。我们还分析了1980-2019年较长时期的SD - WACCM模拟,以量化各种因子对中大气水汽年代际变化的贡献。1980-1995年期间,平流层上层和中间层(纬向平均值和±30°纬度)的模拟水汽由于甲烷排放增加而每10年增加0.30 ppmv。1995年以后,由于平流层冷点温度的变化,水汽急剧减少0.37 ppmv / 10年,然后逐渐增加0.33 ppmv / 10年。冷点温度受到布鲁尔-多布森环流强度的强烈影响。大约在2003年之前,布鲁尔-多布森环流的加速导致热带对流层顶变冷和水汽减少,此后的减速导致对流层顶相应变暖和水汽增加。
Water vapor in the middle atmosphere plays an essential role in global warming, ozone depletion, and the formation of polar stratospheric and mesospheric clouds. We show that tropical middle atmospheric water vapor simulated with the specified‐dynamics version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD‐WACCM) is consistent with changes observed in a merged satellite data set, which encompasses the period 1993–2020. Consistent with previous work, we find no significant trend in the stratosphere in either the observations or the simulation; in the mesosphere, we find a long‐term trend of 0.1 ppmv per decade, but only in the observations. We also analyze an SD‐WACCM simulation for the longer period 1980–2019 to quantify the contribution of various factors to the decadal variation of middle atmospheric water vapor. Over 1980–1995, the simulated water vapor in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, averaged zonally and over ±30° latitude, increases by 0.30 ppmv per decade due to increasing methane emissions. After 1995, a significant abrupt decrease of water vapor of 0.37 ppmv per decade and then a gradual increase of 0.33 ppmv per decade result from changes in stratospheric cold point temperature. The cold‐point temperature is strongly influenced by the strength of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation. The acceleration of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation before about 2003 leads to a cooler tropical tropopause and a decrease of water vapor, and the deceleration thereafter leads to corresponding warming of the tropopause and an increase in water vapor.
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