Transmission Patterns of Seasonal Influenza in China between 2010 and 2018.
Transmission Patterns of Seasonal Influenza in China between 2010 and 2018.
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DOI：
10.3390/v14092063
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发表时间：
2022-09-17
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Shu Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lei H;Yang L;Wang G;Zhang C;Xin Y;Sun Q;Zhang B;Chen T;Yang J;Huang W;Xu M;Xie Y;Wang Y;Xu P;Sun L;Guo D;Du X;Wang D;Shu Y
背景了解传染病的传播源、传播模式和传播机制是有针对性地预防和控制传染病的基础。尽管已经研究了多年，但中国季节性流感流行的详细传播模式和驱动因素仍然难以捉摸。在本研究中，我们利用流行病学和遗传学方法，分析了2010年4月1日至2018年3月31日期间中国大陆更新的省级每周流感监测、序列、气候和人口数据，以表征详细的传播模式，并探索中国季节性流感流行的潜在启动区域和驱动因素。结果甲型H1N1流感pdm09和乙型流感呈年周期，甲型H3N2流感呈半年周期。总体而言，季节性甲型流感（H3N2）病毒在中国引起的感染较多，并在南方夏季占主导地位。中国南方的夏季疫情可能起源于“岭南”地区，该地区包括海南、广西和广东三个最南端的省份。此外，南方地区在维持中国季节性流感的传播中发挥了更重要的播种作用。在时间尺度上，强烈的人员流动在流感流行的省级传播中发挥了作用，但在空间和时间尺度上，气候因素对流感流行的传播都起着驱动作用。结论应加强对南方特别是“岭南”地区夏季季节性流感的监测。更广泛地说，社会经济和气候因素都有助于中国季节性流感的传播。本研究揭示的模式和机制为中国和世界范围内季节性流感的精准预测、预防和控制提供了新的思路。
Background Understanding the transmission source, pattern, and mechanism of infectious diseases is essential for targeted prevention and control. Though it has been studied for many years, the detailed transmission patterns and drivers for the seasonal influenza epidemics in China remain elusive. Methods In this study, utilizing a suite of epidemiological and genetic approaches, we analyzed the updated province-level weekly influenza surveillance, sequence, climate, and demographic data between 1 April 2010 and 31 March 2018 from continental China, to characterize detailed transmission patterns and explore the potential initiating region and drivers of the seasonal influenza epidemics in China. Results An annual cycle for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and B and a semi-annual cycle for influenza A(H3N2) were confirmed. Overall, the seasonal influenza A(H3N2) virus caused more infection in China and dominated the summer season in the south. The summer season epidemics in southern China were likely initiated in the “Lingnan” region, which includes the three most southern provinces of Hainan, Guangxi, and Guangdong. Additionally, the regions in the south play more important seeding roles in maintaining the circulation of seasonal influenza in China. Though intense human mobility plays a role in the province-level transmission of influenza epidemics on a temporal scale, climate factors drive the spread of influenza epidemics on both the spatial and temporal scales. Conclusion The surveillance of seasonal influenza in the south, especially the “Lingnan” region in the summer, should be strengthened. More broadly, both the socioeconomic and climate factors contribute to the transmission of seasonal influenza in China. The patterns and mechanisms revealed in this study shed light on the precise forecasting, prevention, and control of seasonal influenza in China and worldwide.
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