The Relationship Between the Global Burden of Influenza From 2017 to 2019 and COVID-19: Descriptive Epidemiological Assessment.
The Relationship Between the Global Burden of Influenza From 2017 to 2019 and COVID-19: Descriptive Epidemiological Assessment.
复制标题
DOI：
10.2196/24696
复制
发表时间：
2021-03-02
影响因子：
8.5
通讯作者：
Mishra S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Baral SD;Rucinski KB;Twahirwa Rwema JO;Rao A;Prata Menezes N;Diouf D;Kamarulzaman A;Phaswana-Mafuya N;Mishra S
SARS-CoV-2和流感是脂质包膜病毒，发病率和死亡率不同，但传播方式相同。通过描述性流行病学框架，我们评估了区域流感负担的近期历史模式是否反映在观察到的世界各区域COVID-19病例的异质性中。世界卫生组织报告的2017年1月至2019年12月流感和2020年1月1日至2020年10月31日COVID-19每周监测数据用于评估世界银行七个地区流感和COVID-19病例的季节性和时间趋势。在流感季节性更明显的地区，2019冠状病毒病流行的趋势与2017年至2019年流感流行的趋势大致相似。在欧洲、中亚和北美各国，2019冠状病毒病流行的特点是春季出现第一个高峰，随后夏季病例大幅减少，秋季出现第二波。在拉丁美洲和加勒比，一些国家的COVID-19流行在夏季达到高峰，与该区域流感活动最活跃的月份相对应。来自流感活动不太明显地区的国家，包括南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲，迄今为止在COVID-19流行方面表现出更大的异质性。然而，在某些国家，无论在哪个区域，COVID-19和流感趋势都明显相似。迄今所见的2019冠状病毒病趋势与流感趋势的生态一致性表明，传播可能存在共同的个人、结构和环境决定因素。使用描述性流行病学框架来评估快速出现的呼吸道病原体的共同区域趋势，并对呼吸道感染进行更好的研究，可以进一步了解非药物干预和环境条件交叉的不同影响。最终，预测COVID-19等新型呼吸道病原体的趋势并为干预措施提供信息，应利用过去呼吸道病原体相对负担中的流行病学模式作为先验信息。
SARS-CoV-2 and influenza are lipid-enveloped viruses with differential morbidity and mortality but shared modes of transmission. With a descriptive epidemiological framing, we assessed whether recent historical patterns of regional influenza burden are reflected in the observed heterogeneity in COVID-19 cases across regions of the world. Weekly surveillance data reported by the World Health Organization from January 2017 to December 2019 for influenza and from January 1, 2020 through October 31, 2020, for COVID-19 were used to assess seasonal and temporal trends for influenza and COVID-19 cases across the seven World Bank regions. In regions with more pronounced influenza seasonality, COVID-19 epidemics have largely followed trends similar to those seen for influenza from 2017 to 2019. COVID-19 epidemics in countries across Europe, Central Asia, and North America have been marked by a first peak during the spring, followed by significant reductions in COVID-19 cases in the summer months and a second wave in the fall. In Latin America and the Caribbean, COVID-19 epidemics in several countries peaked in the summer, corresponding to months with the highest influenza activity in the region. Countries from regions with less pronounced influenza activity, including South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, showed more heterogeneity in COVID-19 epidemics seen to date. However, similarities in COVID-19 and influenza trends were evident within select countries irrespective of region. Ecological consistency in COVID-19 trends seen to date with influenza trends suggests the potential for shared individual, structural, and environmental determinants of transmission. Using a descriptive epidemiological framework to assess shared regional trends for rapidly emerging respiratory pathogens with better studied respiratory infections may provide further insights into the differential impacts of nonpharmacologic interventions and intersections with environmental conditions. Ultimately, forecasting trends and informing interventions for novel respiratory pathogens like COVID-19 should leverage epidemiologic patterns in the relative burden of past respiratory pathogens as prior information.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
56.3
作者：
Lessler, Justin;Reich, Nicholas G.;Brookmeyer, Ron;Perl, Trish M.;Nelson, Kenrad E.;Cummings, Derek A. T.
通讯作者：
Cummings, Derek A. T.
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Hall, Laura L.;Xu, Liou;Chit, Ayman
通讯作者：
Chit, Ayman
影响因子：
158.5
作者：
Hancock, Kathy;Veguilla, Vic;Katz, Jacqueline M.
通讯作者：
Katz, Jacqueline M.
影响因子：
5
作者：
Iglesias-Gamarra, Antonio;Restrepo, Jose Felix;Matteson, Eric L
通讯作者：
Matteson, Eric L
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Hirve, Siddhivinayak;Newman, Laura P.;Zhang, Wenqing
通讯作者：
Zhang, Wenqing