Designing the Safe Reopening of US Towns Through High‐Resolution Agent‐Based Modeling
Designing the Safe Reopening of US Towns Through High‐Resolution Agent‐Based Modeling
复制标题
通过基于高分辨率代理的建模设计美国城镇的安全重新开放
DOI：
10.1002/adts.202100157
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Porfiri, Maurizio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Truszkowska, Agnieszka;Thakore, Malav;Zino, Lorenzo;Butail, Sachit;Caroppo, Emanuele;Jiang, Zhong‐Ping;Rizzo, Alessandro;Porfiri, Maurizio
随着新冠肺炎疫苗在美国的推出，公共卫生当局正在逐步重启经济。到目前为止，地方当局之间还没有就共同做法达成共识。在这里，提出了一个基于高分辨率试剂的模型，以检查疫苗推出所提供的增强免疫力与与重新开放努力相关的传播风险之间的相互作用。该模型忠实地再现了纽约州新罗谢尔镇的人口统计数据、空间布局和流动模式--代表了美国的城市结构。根据模型预测，在目前人们接种疫苗的速度下，重新开放疫苗需要谨慎，即以每天1%的速度增加在休闲场所和家庭参加社交聚会的机会可能会导致未来三个月内死亡率增加28%。疫苗的推出对重新开放的安全性起着至关重要的作用：预计将目前的疫苗接种率翻一番就足以安全、快速地重新开放。
As COVID‐19 vaccine is being rolled out in the US, public health authorities are gradually reopening the economy. To date, there is no consensus on a common approach among local authorities. Here, a high‐resolution agent‐based model is proposed to examine the interplay between the increased immunity afforded by the vaccine roll‐out and the transmission risks associated with reopening efforts. The model faithfully reproduces the demographics, spatial layout, and mobility patterns of the town of New Rochelle, NY — representative of the urban fabric of the US. Model predictions warrant caution in the reopening under the current rate at which people are being vaccinated, whereby increasing access to social gatherings in leisure locations and households at a 1% daily rate can lead to a 28% increase in the fatality rate within the next three months. The vaccine roll‐out plays a crucial role on the safety of reopening: doubling the current vaccination rate is predicted to be sufficient for safe, rapid reopening.
DOI：
10.1001/jama.2020.6775
发表时间：
2020-01-01
期刊：
JAMA, Journal of the American Medical Association
影响因子：
--
作者：
Richardson, Safiya;Hirsch, Jamie S.;,
通讯作者：
,
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Truszkowska, Agnieszka;Behring, Brandon;Porfiri, Maurizio
通讯作者：
Porfiri, Maurizio