Eye movements reflect adaptive predictions and predictive precision.
Eye movements reflect adaptive predictions and predictive precision.
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DOI：
10.1037/xge0000977
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发表时间：
2021-05
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
McGuire JT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bakst L;McGuire JT
成功的决策取决于对不确定的未来事件进行预测的能力。现有证据表明，预测表征不仅限于点估计，还包括预测不确定性相关水平的信息。预测不确定性的估计在控制信念根据新观测而更新的速度方面起着重要作用。然而，当没有明确表达预测的任务要求时，同样形式的不确定性调节学习是否会自然自发地发生，目前尚不清楚。本文采用基于注视的预测推理范式，表明：(1)预测推理表现为自发注视动态；(2)基于自发注视的预测的反馈驱动更新反映了对环境统计的适应；(3)预期注视变异性以逐事件的方式跟踪预测不确定性。我们的研究结果表明，复杂的预测推理可以自发发生，动眼肌行为可以提供内部预测信念的多维解读。
Successful decision making depends on the ability to form predictions about uncertain future events. Existing evidence suggests predictive representations are not limited to point estimates, but also include information about the associated level of predictive uncertainty. Estimates of predictive uncertainty have an important role in governing the rate at which beliefs are updated in response to new observations. It is not yet known, however, whether the same form of uncertainty-modulated learning occurs naturally and spontaneously when there is no task requirement to express predictions explicitly. Here we used a gaze-based predictive inference paradigm to show that (1) predictive inference manifested in spontaneous gaze dynamics; (2) feedback-driven updating of spontaneous gaze-based predictions reflected adaptation to environmental statistics; and (3) anticipatory gaze variability tracked predictive uncertainty in an event-by-event manner. Our results demonstrate that sophisticated predictive inference can occur spontaneously, and oculomotor behavior can provide a multidimensional readout of internal predictive beliefs.
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