Forecast Families: A New Method to Systematically Evaluate the Benefits of Improving the Skill of an Existing Forecast
Forecast Families: A New Method to Systematically Evaluate the Benefits of Improving the Skill of an Existing Forecast
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预测系列：系统评估提高现有预测技能的效益的新方法
DOI：
10.1061/jwrmd5.wreng-5934
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Rougé C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rougé C
越来越多的研究调查了预测技能，即， 预测能力转化为预测值，即， 有用性，以改善预测知情决策。技能和价值之间的关系被广泛认为是复杂的和特定的情况下，但很少有方法能够使用现实的预测误差进行系统的探索。本文提出了一种单参数线性尺度方法来解决这一差距，以产生家庭的合成预测与现有的后报（已观察到的事件的回顾性预测）所需的技能改进。该方法适用于任何数量的确定性或合奏后报是可用的，并产生一组预测与不同的技能，但严格成比例的错误。这种类似的比较保留了误差的自相关性和互相关性，并为彻底但易于解释的探索技能与现实预测价值之间的关系打开了大门。我们应用这种新方法，季节性降水后报（由欧洲中期天气预报中心，ECMWF-SEAS 5的季节性预报系统的第五代），以探讨其价值，以提高在英国的供水系统的管理。应用表明，虽然价值一般随着技能的增加而增加，但技能-价值关系不一定是线性的，它在很大程度上取决于业务偏好和水文条件（丰水或干旱年份）。它还表明，预测家庭的方法可以帮助水资源管理人员和预测开发人员确定什么时候技能的提高是最有价值的。这有可能促进预测制作者和用户之间富有成效的双向对话。
A growing number of studies have investigated how forecast skill, i.e., predictive power, translates into forecast value, i.e., usefulness, for improving forecast-informed decisions. The relationship between skill and value is widely understood to be complex and case-specific, yet few methods enable its systematic exploration using realistic forecast errors. This paper addresses this gap by proposing a single-parameter linear scaling method to generate families of synthetic forecasts with the desired skill improvements on an existing hindcast (a retrospective forecast of already-observed events). The method is applicable to any quantity for which a deterministic or ensemble hindcast is available, and generates a set of forecasts with different skill but strictly proportional errors. This like-for-like comparison preserves the autocorrelation and cross-correlations of errors, and opens the door for thorough, yet easily interpretable, explorations of the relationship between skill and value of a realistic forecast. We apply this new method to seasonal precipitation hindcasts (produced by the fifth generation of the Seasonal forecasting System of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF-SEAS5) in order to explore their value for improving the management of a water supply system in the UK. The application showed that although value generally increases with skill, the skill–value relationship is not necessarily linear, and it strongly depends on operational preferences and hydrological conditions (wet or dry years). It also suggests that the forecast families methodology can help water managers and forecast developers identify when a skill increase would be most valuable. This has the potential to foster productive two-way conversations between forecast producers and users.
欧洲组织使用季节性气候预报的障碍和推动因素
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
M. Bruno Soares;S. Dessai
通讯作者：
S. Dessai
欧洲气候信息的部门使用：概要概述
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Marta Bruno Soares;M. Alexander;S. Dessai
通讯作者：
S. Dessai
影响因子：
9.2
作者：
Cohen, Judah;Coumou, Dim;Tziperman, Eli
通讯作者：
Tziperman, Eli