A Novel Method for Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment
A Novel Method for Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment
复制标题
农业干旱风险评估新方法
DOI：
10.1007/s11269-019-02225-8
复制
发表时间：
2019-04
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Song Cui
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pei Wei;Fu Qiang;Liu Dong;Tianxiao Li;Kun Cheng;Song Cui
Climate change, increased temperatures and imbalanced precipitation distributions will potentially increase the local drought risk in certain areas. Drought assessment can identify the hidden dangers of drought and provide a theoretical basis for disaster prevention and mitigation. In this paper, a new agricultural drought risk assessment method proposed from the perspective of grain yield. The first principal components of precipitation, temperature, humidity and soil moisture represent hazard factors. The sensitive yield, which represents the sensitivity, was separated from the grain yield using a regression method. Additionally, the trend component of the grain yield represents the adaptive capacity, and the crop planting area represents exposure. Based on these definitions, the concepts of unit drought risk and regional drought risk are proposed. Four cities in Heilongjiang Province, which has the highest grain yield of any province in China, were used as application examples, and the spatial and temporal variation in the agricultural drought risk were analyzed. Application example show that the method for evaluating agricultural drought presented in this paper is reasonable in a statistical sense. The process for calculating sensitivity and adaptability shows that this method is suitable for arid and semi-arid areas, where grain yield is sensitive to hazard factors, and areas where grain yield has a certain trend.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Kai Xu;Dawen Yang;Hanbo Yang;Zhe Li;Yue Qin;Yan Shen
通讯作者：
Kai Xu;Dawen Yang;Hanbo Yang;Zhe Li;Yue Qin;Yan Shen
气候变化下中国区域干旱脆弱性及其减缓策略：数据包络分析与层次分析法综合方法
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Xiao-Chen Yuan;Qian Wang;Ke Wang;Bing Wang;Ju-Liang Jin;Yi-Ming Wei
通讯作者：
Yi-Ming Wei
影响因子：
2.4
作者：
Zhou Yu-lian
通讯作者：
Zhou Yu-lian
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Dan Zhang;Guoli Wang;Huicheng Zhou
通讯作者：
Dan Zhang;Guoli Wang;Huicheng Zhou
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
Yuan Liu;Buchun Liu;Xiaojuan Yang;W. Bai;Jian Wang
通讯作者：
Yuan Liu;Buchun Liu;Xiaojuan Yang;W. Bai;Jian Wang