RECAST THE DICE AND ITS POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
RECAST THE DICE AND ITS POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
复制标题
重新掷骰子及其政策建议
DOI：
10.1017/s1365100510000428
复制
发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
0.9
通讯作者：
Armon Rezai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Armon Rezai
DICE(气候与经济动态综合模型)为全球变暖的经济讨论引入了两个重要的政策方面。首先，它主张“气候政策坡道”，认为减轻气候变化是最好的。其次，它表明代际权衡是缓解问题的核心。在这篇文章中，我们认为这两个发现都建立在有争议的假设之上。为了证明这一点，提出了一个重铸骰子。它的结果表明，DICE的预测并不可靠，因为较早的迁移较高，而沿最佳路径的温度上升较慢。采用污染是负外部性的基线情景，使减缓气候变化成为帕累托改进。所谓的当代人的牺牲消失了。这加强了立即采取政策行动的理由。
The DICE (for Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy) introduced two important policy aspects to the economic discussion of global warming. First, it argues for a “climate-policy ramp” that deems back-loading of mitigation optimal. Second, it demonstrates that an intergenerational tradeoff is at the heart of the mitigation problem. In this paper we argue that both of these findings rest on contestable assumptions. To demonstrate this a recast DICE is presented. Its outcomes show that DICE's predictions are not robust with higher migitations earlier on and slower temperature increases along the optimal path. The adoption of a baseline scenario in which pollution is a negative externality makes mitigating climate change a Pareto improvement. The alleged sacrifice of present generations vanishes. This strengthens the case for immediate policy action.
影响因子：
14.6
作者：
Martijn Gough
通讯作者：
Martijn Gough