Sailing From the Seas of Chaos Into the Corridor of Stability
Sailing From the Seas of Chaos Into the Corridor of Stability
复制标题
从混沌之海驶入稳定走廊
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
12.6
通讯作者：
E. Evers
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Lakens;E. Evers
最近的事件使心理学家们认识到，归纳科学中固有的不确定性被有问题的研究实践放大了。在这篇文章中，我们提供了一个实用的介绍，最近开发的统计工具，可用于处理这些不确定性时，执行和评估研究。在第1部分中，我们讨论了准确和稳定的效应量估计值的重要性，以及如何设计研究以达到效应量估计值的稳定性。在第2部分中，我们解释了如何在不确定效应量估计的情况下，通过序贯分析设计具有良好功效的研究。在第3部分中，我们（a）解释p值传达了关于效应为真的可能性的信息，（B）说明如何使用v统计量来评估单个研究的准确性，以及（c）展示如何使用p曲线分析来检查多个研究的证据价值。最后，我们讨论的后果，纳入我们的建议，减少数量，但提高质量的研究成果。我们希望本文中讨论的实用建议将为研究人员提供工具，使他们能够朝着心理科学迈出重要的一步，使研究人员能够根据可能性区分所有可能的真理。
Recent events have led psychologists to acknowledge that the inherent uncertainty encapsulated in an inductive science is amplified by problematic research practices. In this article, we provide a practical introduction to recently developed statistical tools that can be used to deal with these uncertainties when performing and evaluating research. In Part 1, we discuss the importance of accurate and stable effect size estimates as well as how to design studies to reach a corridor of stability around effect size estimates. In Part 2, we explain how, given uncertain effect size estimates, well-powered studies can be designed with sequential analyses. In Part 3, we (a) explain what p values convey about the likelihood that an effect is true, (b) illustrate how the v statistic can be used to evaluate the accuracy of individual studies, and (c) show how the evidential value of multiple studies can be examined with a p-curve analysis. We end by discussing the consequences of incorporating our recommendations in terms of a reduced quantity, but increased quality, of the research output. We hope that the practical recommendations discussed in this article will provide researchers with the tools to make important steps toward a psychological science that allows researchers to differentiate among all possible truths on the basis of their likelihood.
影响因子：
1.8
作者：
Klein, Richard A.;Ratliff, Kate A.;Nosek, Brian A.
通讯作者：
Nosek, Brian A.
影响因子：
5.9
作者：
Asendorpf, Jens B.;Conner, Mark;Wicherts, Jelte M.
通讯作者：
Wicherts, Jelte M.